Symbol EWZ Open Date 11/6/2023 Bear Call or Bull Put Call Expiry Date 12/22/2023 Short Strike 34.5 Long Strike 36 Price to Open 0.18 Min Width Multiple 3 Risk Ratio 7.33 Return on Risk 13.6% Opening DTE 46 1 Day ROI% 0.30% Max Annual ROI % 108.2%
Longer term, the buyer stepped in on the -1 sig test Oct 6 Rebought the Bearish range -1 sig and the selle did not come back at the aggregate range anchor -2 sig. Candles past 5 days have gotten short and small. Price is about to test the 2nd order selling range at +1 sig. I anticipate that this seller returns with some capital and begins a push down. So +2 sig above it from the 2nd aggregate seller and the Long term buyer is also above it. Which is why I sold the 34.5 strike at 4 wide. It's not that great a yield at 13%, but it's a sound technical idea IMO. The trade here is to get a return of the 2nd order seller at its +1 sig and allow some time for the 12/22 Calls to die.
I only anticipate a push lower into maybe 31 or 30.75 where the buyer may resume. So this Bearish position I need to watch closely to see how it reacts to the shortest Bull range -1 sig in the Blue shaded range. I will buy back this position at breakeven or small profit if the approach and reaction at -1 sig, currently at 30.62 and probably 31 into the future, is a strong Bullish response leaving gaps and imbalances on the 15 min. (Incorporating ICT orderflow reading)
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This one is like SPY. Completely risk-on shit the bed on the Call credit side. It touched my short strike to the F*n TICK on Friday!!! Goddamn. But that's also just above 2 sigma on the buy side, which did NOT slow down this rally. I actually forgot about this one because it's at the bottom of my portfolio list in my broker positions. So today I'm expecting some decline and I'll have to roll it out, but probably not up because it's too far up and it's too tight to the short strike to roll up for a credit. At the moment the 5 min chart is looking pretty bearish on the day with a wonderful gap down after the weekend. But still the hourly is quite bullish with a gap below. I'm inside 21 days so I need to manage this thing out at least.
Closed this out for 0.02 profit. Sucks, but I was completely wrong on the direction the entire time. Seems to be a recurring theme for all my Nov positions. COMPLETELY WRONG. I've had to roll out all of them except for this one that I could close at a break even basically. I think I could've bought back for .12 or .13, but I had a resting limit order GTC from yesterday and this thing was so close to the short strike and it's just lingered forever that I just needed it gone before it did real damage to my account.
Symbol EWZ Open Date 11/6/2023 Put or Call Call Expiry Date 12/22/2023 Short Strike 34.5 Long Strike 36 Price to Open 0.18 Min Width Multiple 3 Risk Ratio 7.33 Return on Risk 13.6% Opening DTE 46 1 Day ROI% 0.30% Max Annual ROI % 108.2% Buyback to Close 0.16 Open to Roll Closing % Cost on Opening Credit -12.50% Net Roll % on Opening Credit Closing Date 12/12/2023 Closing Price 0.16 Closed Margin ROI % 1.52% Closed Annual ROI % 12.02%
claypuzzle
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EWZ had that massive gap up on the Tues CPI just like everything else. It pushed up and outside +2 sig and has been hovering just above it all week. Using +2 sig as "support". It's as close as the SPY 452 is to getting breached, but there's not been a real opportunity to buy it back. I guess it did hit a -2 sig low yesterday (Thurs) that I could've bought back, but I was distracted with something else that I needed to prepare for and tarvel to in the afternoon. These 34.5's are in trouble and I want them to try and fill the gap some. Still looks rangebound on the hourly chart up in a tight flag with a big gap below. So either it rallies way up and I roll it Out and Sideways. Or it gives up in the range, not higher than 33.80 and rolls over to fill the gap and I buy it back at a 50% of max profit.
The problem I have with selling now some spreads up at 36/37 and then waiting to buy back the 34.50 is that it's completely sideways and hasn't touched +2 sig of my model up at 34.13 currently. So maybe I get a push down into 33.25 which is -2 sig on the range and I buy back and wait for a rotation up to sell 36 calls.
claypuzzle
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Still ok, but Not looking good. Yesterday's CPI number of unchanged / 0% was outrageously bullish risk on for everything including TLT. F'ing massive gap. You suck Powell.
Seems to be a recurring theme for all my Nov positions.
COMPLETELY WRONG.
I've had to roll out all of them except for this one that I could close at a break even basically.
I think I could've bought back for .12 or .13, but I had a resting limit order GTC from yesterday and this thing was so close to the short strike and it's just lingered forever that I just needed it gone before it did real damage to my account.
Symbol EWZ
Open Date 11/6/2023
Put or Call Call
Expiry Date 12/22/2023
Short Strike 34.5
Long Strike 36
Price to Open 0.18
Min Width Multiple 3
Risk Ratio 7.33
Return on Risk 13.6%
Opening DTE 46
1 Day ROI% 0.30%
Max Annual ROI % 108.2%
Buyback to Close 0.16
Open to Roll
Closing % Cost on Opening Credit -12.50%
Net Roll % on Opening Credit
Closing Date 12/12/2023
Closing Price 0.16
Closed Margin ROI % 1.52%
Closed Annual ROI % 12.02%