SchalkLouw
Long

Emerging Markets and my preferred #ETF Entry

AMEX:EZA   ISHARES INC MSCI SOUTH AFRICA ETF
Let’s start off with the declaimer – I’m South African and I might just be bias. If you would ask me to buy one #ETF and one ONLY, this will be my recovery ETF . Is it still a country full of challenges? YES! Could it face further downgrades? MAYBE! Do South Africa know how to fix the problem and have the “management” to do it? YES!

Watch $55.30 as a first possible breakout point, with the $58.40 being next resistance level . 50-day Moving Average also getting mighty close to the 200-day, with a break bring that Golden Cross.

Fundamentally, according to Thomson Reuters consensus forecasts, analysts see growth of 17.1% from current levels on the FTSE/JSE Top40 Index (in locally currency). My personal view is that the Rand/USD should be better priced around the R12.78/USD over the next 12 months. Should that happen, we could be looking at a possible capital gain of 8.32% (in USD) on the $EZA, corresponding nicely with the close to $58.40 levels. Should the $ZAR only improve to R13.50/USD (and consensus are spot-on), then we could be looking at a target price of $60.85 over the next 12 months.

On the downside, watch $53.08 as first resistance point, with $51.50 as next possible stop.
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