dchua1969
Short

Ford now a junk stock!

NYSE:F   FORD MTR CO DEL
Longer term, we expect the price to revisit the low of Feb 2009 at 1.41.

This will be counters that I will not short as the risk/reward ratio is not attractive anymore. The peak of this share was in 2013 at 18. That level will be a shorting level to begin with.

Nevertheless, to each his own and this trade set up is for your reference only and not an invitation to trade. Shorting carries a different risk from Longing and those who are not mentally prepared might be in for a surprise. Make sure you practise a lot on higher margin of safety counters so that your probability of winning is higher.

Remember, the market is flushed with more opportunities than your available capital on hand. So, to diversify so widely is to spread oneself too thin and runs a risk of not able to manage your own positions in the event of a sudden spike in price (both up or down). You will be caught with your pants down to close your position , resulting in unnecessary losses.

Have a handful, between 5 to 8 I would say is more than enough. As you closed 1-2 positions, you can visit your watch list and see if any is ripe for taking a position. There is never a need to force yourself to take a position just because the media portrayed it to be so or your circles of friends are in it and you felt left out not participating.

Again and again ,I stressed the objective of trading is to make money (unless yours is not) so regardless of Ford or whatever counter you have, so long as they are making you money, that is enough reason for you to participate. In fact, the ones that you are familiar with because you are in the industry or have been dabbling in it for a while is to your advantage. You can tame this animal as you have riding it for a while , know its temperament and timing , so to speak.

There are traders who only concentrate on 1 forex pair and makes lots of money while others succeed in shares and futures . Find one instrument that you are comfortable with. No rush, there is plenty of time and not to worry you will missed out anything if you are slow.

Comment: In case you wonder how can it rise up so much , it is due to the Feds generous spending on junk bonds and that lift up companies in this category.

The Fed move is seen as its strongest yet to keep some of America's most highly indebted companies—to be sure, these are big employers—from going insolvent should the coronavirus crisis extend into the summer. - Fortune 10 Apr 2020

Comments

good analysis. Any specific reason that you believe it will be triple top? or just as an example of volatile not predictable market?
Reply
dchua1969 Alirezaaa
@Alirezaaa, thanks for your comments. As you can see from the updated chart now, it did not form a triple top formation but instead continues to head south. There were some support at the 5.03 level and I was thinking it might rebound from that level before coming down. This is a short opportunity now !
Reply
Alirezaaa dchua1969
@dchua1969, Thank you for update. It is a bit tricky now. I agree it will retest that support later as well but maybe first retest the upper resistance. so volatile not sure! lol
Reply
dchua1969 Alirezaaa
@Alirezaaa, yes it is volatile. As an auto manufacturer, who would have thought an epidemic causing cities lockdown would preclude consumers to drive down town. And if they can't drive like usual, how can they be thinking of upgrading to new ones ? Unless you are super rich, you want to buy cars for collection in your garage. That is probably for the minority .
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