I’ve read your historical/past ‘analyses’ and can concur that doing exactly opposite of whatever you recommended thus far has returns that far exceed any index or basket of indices.
Moreover, how do you think it will reach $27 in this climate?
Where is the additional 85b in market cap gonna come from?
Ford has been in a monotonic decline for the past decade what makes you certain they will 6 fold in the foreground of the worse pandemic in nearly a century?
my bad, it’s all in the ABCDEFG waves
LukeSkywalker
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@M_69, Yes im sure that if you bought TESLA at 250 or shorted BTC at 13k, would have given you a green PNL. But to answer your question how this should be possible: Ford is an american Brand, which has a lot of history behind it, and has a good outlook for 2020.
1. Strong balance sheet. Ford's debt load is modest and well-structured, and it has plenty of cash ($22.3 billion as of the end of 2019) to weather a recession without big cuts to future-product programs.
2: New products on the way. That aging product line is getting a jolt of youth that should help Ford's pricing and margins quite a bit over the next couple of years. Ford just launched all-new versions of its big-selling Explorer and Escape SUVs in 2019. An all-new Bronco (and a smaller version, called Bronco Sport) will be unveiled soon, along with a revamped Ranger pickup. Later this year, we'll see an all-new version of the F-150, Ford's biggest money-maker. More, including products in new categories, will follow over the next year or two.
3: China is turning around. A new management team -- and a new strategy -- are moving things in the right direction after several quarters of losses. It'll take some time, but Ford appears to have a solid plan to make its China operation sustainably profitable.
4: Future-tech investments will start paying off. Ford has several electric vehicles coming, including the Mustang Mach-E sports SUV and electric versions of two of its fleet stalwarts, the F-150 pickup and the Transit van. All are designed to be profitable in the near term, which will help pay back the hefty investments that Ford has made in the technology.
All that in mind, if everything goes bad and the pandemic gets worse, there is a bailout program in place.
I would like to apologies for the blatant sarcasm I had shown earlier and not starting things off diplomatically.
Moreover, I have been keeping bullish watch on F since January but am still holding out for an entry around 4-mid 3s.
Though I agree that all your points bear weight, I believe 1-2 have been long priced in and 3-4 might take an indefinite period of time to realise given the state of oil, china and consumer spending might be in the coming months.
To build on your point 1, their dividend is currently 11%.
I reckon one could make a good punt DCA-ing long, selling calls and collecting that sweet dividend in the meantime (if any).
Jmoney919
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@LukeSkywalker, Hence anything is possible in these market conditions, however I do believe If you are correct it will take a few years to play out. The Microeconomic conditions look good for Ford given its Good balance sheet, Restructuring plans, and Brand name.... however the Macroeconomics don't look as great given that Global auto demand is softening, it will take a while for Fords investments in emerging markets to playout, competition from other EV auto makers ( Tesla, GM etc.) and last but not least for was just downgraded to "Junk "... so I would sit on my hands for the near future and see how sentiment around EV tech play out and how much of the PIE ford can take
I am looking at Ford stocks as a longterm strategy. with your shared opinions, it makes sense.
scottybfx
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Correct
Ford isn't going anywhere and they're innovating as we speak
Reality isn't static, Ford is adapting to the market. Now is the time to build one's stake in the future.
Plus, and this is extremely important: Ford's CEO isn't a weed-smoking meme. Ford is vital US infrastructure. Because of this, they, like Apple, can WAIT for the next big thing. That is what we're actually buying.
SpiralGraph
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Nice! i had my target at $29.00
Doubt it goes lower from here.
Moreover, how do you think it will reach $27 in this climate?
Where is the additional 85b in market cap gonna come from?
Ford has been in a monotonic decline for the past decade what makes you certain they will 6 fold in the foreground of the worse pandemic in nearly a century?
my bad, it’s all in the ABCDEFG waves