Fundamental analysis on FB

Very similar to yesterday's post on PYPL. Similar methodology and tools used.

Disclaimer: I do not hold FB and may not hold going forward as well. Massive price drop on earnings prompted me to dig a little more and do this analysis. All the methods are derived from free and open source scripts aimed at finding statistical and fundamental edge.

Point of this analysis is to understand if the massive price drop is justified or if this is an overreaction based on fundamentals and stats.

🎲 Earnings

• Reported revenue and profit for this quarter is not too far from the estimated guidance. 🟡
  
• Guidance for future earnings and revenue is weak. 25% drop in Q1 earnings estimates whereas 15% drop in Q1 revenue estimates. 🔴
  
• Last year Q1 had similar drop where EPS dropped by 16% and revenue dropped by 10%. Hence, this drop may be season. 🟡
  

🎲 Financial stability
There is no doubt that financial position of FB is still very strong with low levels of debt and strong overall returns and margin. 🟢


🎲 Growth Projections
Based on the history, growth isn't concerning point too. However net income and book value seems to be stagnating and rate of increase of earnings and revenue seems to be dropping. This may not be concern for companies such as FB which are too big. 🟡

🎲 Drawdown from ATH
Present drawdown from ATH is around 36% and according to stats, this drop is 90th percentile. Meaning stock has had such a drawdown for only 10% of its trading time in the history. This may mean bargain for those who are willing to invest on the basis of value. 🟢

🎲 Comparison with fundamentals
Drop in fundamentals does not look too alarming. 🟢
Please note that range mentioned is percentile range. Book value per share is at 3.6 percentile even though it is not too far from peak. This is because not often FB's book value dropped in the overall history - which itself is quite impressive.

Let me know your views in the comment people!!