24/5/25 Will The Weekly Candlestick Close Bearish or Neutral?

1. Thursday’s candlestick (Oct 23) was a bull bar closing near its high with a long tail below and trading below the 20-day EMA.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would observe whether the bears could create follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA, or if the market would trade slightly lower but stall, reversing to retest the 20-day EMA instead.
   
3. The market traded lower, but formed a rally in the last 2 hours (following the rally in Crude Oil and SBO) and is still trading below the 20-day EMA.
   
4. The bulls see the current move as another pullback.
   
5. They want the September 30 or September 23 low areas to act as support.
   
6. They want a reversal from a large double bottom bull flag (September 23 and October 23 lows) and want the market to reverse back above the 20-day EMA.
   
7. They must create strong consecutive bull bars trading above the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control.
   
8. They want Friday's candlestick to be a strong bull bar so that the weekly candlestick will have a bull body and close above the 20-week EMA.
   
9. The bears see the recent (Oct 9) move as a buy vacuum retest of the August high.
   
10. They want a reversal from a double top bear flag (Aug 19 and Oct 9), a lower high major trend reversal (Oct 9), as well as a larger double top bear flag with the February high on the larger time frame.
    
11. They see last Friday's rally (Oct 17) forming a lower high and Tuesday (Oct 21) forming a micro double top (Oct 17 and Oct 21).
    
12. They want the market to reverse below the 20-day EMA. They got what they wanted.
    
13. If the market trades higher, they want the 20-day EMA or the October 17 high to act as resistance, followed by a 3rd leg sideways to down.
    
14. The bears must create sustained follow-through selling trading far below the 20-day EMA and the September 23 low to increase the odds of a deeper pullback.
    
15. They want a strong bear bar today so that the weekly candlestick will close near its low and below the 20-week EMA.
    
16. Production: SPPOMA's first 20 days increased up 2.7%.
    
17. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
    
18. Export: Oct up 2.4% for the first 20 days as per ITS.
    
19. For today (Friday, Oct 24), traders will see if the bears can create a bear bar closing near its low. If they get that, the weekly candlestick will close near its low, which will increase the odds of next week trading at least a little lower.
    
20. Or will the bulls be able to create a bull bar instead? If this is the case, the weekly candlestick will close above the 20-week EMA with a long tail below, and possibly with a bull body. This will reduce the recent bearishness.
    

Andrew