29/10/25 Bears Want Close Below September 23 Low

1. Yesterday's candlestick (Tuesday, October 28) was another bear bar closing near its low with a small tail below.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would observe whether the bears could create more follow-through selling, or if the bulls could create a pullback instead.
   
3. They continue to create follow-through selling, testing the September 23 low.
   
4. The bulls see the current move as another pullback.
   
5. They want the September 23 low areas to act as support, forming a large double bottom bull flag (September 23 and October 29 lows).
   
6. They must create strong consecutive bull bars to show they are back in control.
   
7. The bears want strong follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA, with a break below the September low sometime this week. So far, this is the case.
   
8. The current move is in the form of a 6-bar bear microchannel, indicating strong bears and persistent selling. There may be sellers above the first pullback.
   
9. If the market trades higher, they expect at least a small sideways to down leg to retest the current leg extreme low (currently Oct 29 low).
   
10. The bears must create sustained follow-through selling trading below the September 23 low to increase the odds of a reversal.
    
11. Production: SPPOMA's first 25 days increased by +2.78%.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
    
13. Export: Oct down 0.36% for the first 25 days as per ITS.
    
14. For today (Wednesday, Oct 29), traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling and close below the October 23 low.
    
15. Or will the market trade lower, but close with a long tail or a bull body instead?
    
16. For now, if there is a small bounce, odds slightly favor sellers above the bear microchannel.
    

Andrew