10/11/25 MPOB Data - Sideways Consolidation After Strong Selloff

1. Friday’s candlestick (Nov 7) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a small tail below.
   
2. In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the bulls could produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears would extend their follow-through selling instead.
   
3. The market traded down and closed the week near its low, increasing the odds of the market trading at least a little lower next week.
   
4. The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low.
   
5. They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 6).
   
6. If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move.
   
7. They also want a pullback to the 20-day EMA.
   
8. To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear microchannel and closing above the 20-day EMA.
   
9. The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
   
10. The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
    
11. The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the Nov 6 low.
    
12. Fundamentals
    
13. • Production: SPPOMA up 5% in the first 5 days.
    
14. • Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures.
    
15. • Exports: ITS down 15.38% in the first 5 days.
    
16. Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
    
17. The market remains Always-In-Short.
    
18. The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may have to form a minor pullback before resuming lower.
    
19. The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively.
    
20. For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor.
    
21. If there is a stronger bounce, sellers may be waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
    
22. For tomorrow (Monday, Nov 10), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling instead.