8/12/25 Market Back to 4100-50 Tight Trading Range Area

1. Friday’s candlestick (Dec. 4) was an inside bull bar closing near its high.
   
2. In our previous report, we stated that traders would watch to see whether the bears could create follow-through selling and close far below the 20-day EMA, or if the market would trade higher to retest the area near the 20-day EMA instead.
   
3. The market traded higher to test near the 20-day EMA area. The weekly candlestick closed as a bull bar in its upper half.
   
4. The bulls hope the selloff (Nov 26) will form a major higher low.
   
5. The bulls hope to get a reversal from a large wedge pattern (Jan 17, May 8, and Nov 26).
   
6. They see any pullback simply as a retest of the November 26 low, and want it to be weak (overlapping candlesticks, poor follow-through selling), forming a higher low major trend reversal.
   
7. They must produce strong follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA to show they are clearly in control.
   
8. The bears want the 20-day EMA to act as a resistance level, followed by a retest of the November low.
   
9. If the market trades higher, they want the November 19 high to act as resistance (around 4250-4300 area)
   
10. They hope for a strong third leg down to form the wedge pattern, with the first two legs being Nov 13 and Nov 26.
    
11. Fundamentals
    
12. • Production: Production may be down in December.
    
13. • Refineries: Buying interest is there at these low prices. Not paying premiums vs spot futures.
    
14. • Exports: ITS first five days of Dec: TBA
    
15. The market sold off in a tight bear channel, followed by a tight trading range in November, which could be a possible final flag, followed by a second leg sideways to down (Nov 26).
    
16. The market formed a pullback towards the 20-day EMA and back to the November tight trading range area around 4100-50 area.
    
17. If the market trades lower, traders will see the strength of the retest of the November 26 low. Will it be strong, breaking below the Nov 26 low? Or will it be weak, perhaps stalling around the December 2 low area?
    
18. Today (Monday, Dec. 8), traders will watch to see whether the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar closing above the 20-day EMA, or will the market trade lower instead?
    
19. Will the market be choppy around the 4100-4150 range again like in November?
    

Andrew