9/4/26 Bears Need FT Selling to Show Control

1. Wednesday's candlestick (April 8) was a big bear bar testing the 20-day EMA.
2. In our last report, we said traders would watch if bulls could create a strong breakout above the 2025 high, or if the market would stall around these levels, followed by a pullback to the 20-day EMA this week.
3. Bulls see the current move as a deep pullback and want the third leg sideways to up with the first two legs being March 9 and April 1.
4. At the least, they want a retest of the April 1 high, even if it makes a lower high.
5. They want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
6. If the market trades lower, they hope the area around 4450-4500 would act as support.
7. Bears view the recent move as a retest the prior high (March 9), and want a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal.
8. Bears need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows trading far below the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control.
9. Fundamentals:
10. • Production: Production for Apri up +15.63%
11. • Refineries: Physical spot has more or less caught up to futures spot, no longer trading at a huge discount.
12. • Exports: Export in April first 5 days down -51.49% - Per ITS
13. The market formed a second leg sideways to up to retest the prior high, forming a higher high followed by a deep pullback yesterday following the ceasefire in the Middle East conflict.
14. For now, traders will watch if bears can create follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA.
15. Or will the market stall around the 20-day EMA or around the 4450-4500 area instead.

Andrew