18/3/26 Current Pullback Minor or Start of Reversal?

1. Tuesday’s candlestick (Mar. 16) was a bear bar closing near its low with a prominent tail above after gapping down at the open.
2. We said traders would see if bulls could create a strong retest of last week's high (March 9), or if the move up would be weak; overlapping candlesticks, prominent upper tails or bear bars.
3. Currently 11.20am, the market opened higher during the night session and continued lower, trading below yesterday's low.
4. Bulls want a retest of last week's high (March 9), even if it only forms a lower high. So far, the retest formed a lower high
5. Bulls need sustained follow-through buying to increase the odds of a retest of the March 9 high.
6. They hope the pullback in the last 2 days will be weak and sideways.
7. Bears view the current move as a second leg sideways to up to retest the prior high and hope it will form a lower high.
8. Bears need to create strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
9. Fundamentals:
10. • Production: Production for March - Sppoma 15 days - Down -5.28%
11. • Refineries: Physical spot has more or less caught up to futures spot, no longer trading at a huge discount.
12. • Exports: ITS March - 15 days up +43. 51%
13. The market experienced a significant upward spike on March 9, followed by a deep pullback in response to the movement of Crude Oil.
14. So far, there is no ceasefire or permanent solution to the Middle East conflict. Any further escalation or de-escalation will have a significant impact on commodities such as crude oil.
15. Traders will see if the current move retest of last week's high (March 9) stalls at a lower high, which is the case now.
16. Or will the pullback today and yesterday be minor and temporary?

Andrew