long commodities tho they're talking a breather. looking at FCX for another decent trade.
The setup: thinking this downward trend in FCX continues for a few more days then touches off the bottom of this inside pitchfork, so I'm eyeing a few at the money April 16 33.50 puts, watch to see how it behaves on the 32.91 support level, if it fails there, fork model is garbage, and I'll roll these puts out another week to collect more downside. If it bounces off the bottom of the fork channel & trends back up (which I think it'll do being that FCX routinely beat earnings as of late), I'll buy some cheap out of money monthly calls -preferably before end of session Friday. Likely selling these calls early following week when they strike in the money because the S&P runs the risk of bringing down a lot of sectors if it rolls over in the coming days/weeks. The one caveat that could prop up FCX is that if gold finally stages a rally, then the two commodities could fly in the face of an S&P re-rating. We'll see.
The setup: thinking this downward trend in FCX continues for a few more days then touches off the bottom of this inside pitchfork, so I'm eyeing a few at the money April 16 33.50 puts, watch to see how it behaves on the 32.91 support level, if it fails there, fork model is garbage, and I'll roll these puts out another week to collect more downside. If it bounces off the bottom of the fork channel & trends back up (which I think it'll do being that FCX routinely beat earnings as of late), I'll buy some cheap out of money monthly calls -preferably before end of session Friday. Likely selling these calls early following week when they strike in the money because the S&P runs the risk of bringing down a lot of sectors if it rolls over in the coming days/weeks. The one caveat that could prop up FCX is that if gold finally stages a rally, then the two commodities could fly in the face of an S&P re-rating. We'll see.
Comment:
rolled into 33.50 puts this morning on the back of the CPI report. Because this market is ass-backwards, knew FCX wouldn't rally hard, instead, just churn which it's doing now. Hopefully it just gives up and tests a lower bound near $32.95. On that major fib level it can rest then rally as I suspect it'll do.