9/9/25 - $fdx - my canary, but watching only

9/9/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: FDX
my canary, but watching only

- updated my thinking on UPS following such an anti-stellar YTD performance
- the google trends reflect the reality that mgmt (of all these co's) has been saying
- in a lot of ways FDX's mgn profile and non-amzn affected biz demonstrates the pain that UPS may still be facing, and not yet behind it
- brutal businesses, but for merely 4-5% fcf yield on s/t like FDX and exposed to a lot of the similar macro issues as UPS, tariffs, consumer, and IMO, tough to own a weak link stock given this paint into YE tax loss selling... will be one managers say "can just buy it back and whatever for now". just no thanks.
- i'm watching UPS and FDX as canaries on tariffs news or consumer
- bias remains to see some sort of funky reaction to "lower rates" which i think ppl think are somehow going to help a pretty elf'd up economy and where... 100 bps won't even do the trick, just yet.
- remember: when the central bankers panic is where your print. everyone knows they're going to cut. somehow people think a/ there's already a great liquidity situation in mkts - wrong and b/ that some meager cut is going to improve this situation - wrong. so let people do the fafo'ing. get your watchlists ready. no need to act all day every day. when the time comes to act it will be hard enough. do the hard work now so when that happens, you'll just act, not wig.

V