During periods of deep negative real rates gold tends to do very well.
The 1970's was a decade which saw big moves in real rates due as the Fed trying to combat the high inflation.
The more volatile the moves are in real rates, and the deeper into negative territory real rates go, the better gold performs.
We may be entering a similar period where the Fed is having to increase real rates with tightening policies, only to reverse course when it becomes clear the economy can take no more.
Gold is forward looking and so will predict the above outcome before any other asset does. Therefore I would expect gold to rally, once the Fed begins raising rates in March in anticipation they will likely reverse course soon after.
The 1970's was a decade which saw big moves in real rates due as the Fed trying to combat the high inflation.
The more volatile the moves are in real rates, and the deeper into negative territory real rates go, the better gold performs.
We may be entering a similar period where the Fed is having to increase real rates with tightening policies, only to reverse course when it becomes clear the economy can take no more.
Gold is forward looking and so will predict the above outcome before any other asset does. Therefore I would expect gold to rally, once the Fed begins raising rates in March in anticipation they will likely reverse course soon after.