gold_gary

Buy FNV at $151 and below

Long
NYSE:FNV   FRANCO NEVADA CORP
FNV is a leveraged play on gold , although much of their revenues come from other materials. During this bull cycle, the run up from March-June produced a ~19% rise in gold and a ~58% rise in FNV . After a consolidation, a similar run in July produced ~20% rise in gold and ~34% rise in FNV . We are now in a consolidation. I believe this underperformance is primarily due to two issues: 1. investors are skeptical of the rise in gold and expect a significant retracement and 2. mine shutdowns due to COVID19 are temporarily suspending cash flows. Because FNV is a royalty company they are valued more by their cash flow than their assets so royalty companies are disproportionately impacted by mine closures accompanying a rising gold price. I expect the gold price to continue its bull run, with normal corrections, and FNV will eventually catch up in price which it has been lagging. If gold prices remain at these levels and shutdowns improve, by next quarter's earnings report this catch up may occur. Looking at Fib retracement, the 0.382 level closely corresponds with support level of $150. This may be broken to test the 0.5 Fib level, I wouldn't be surprised. If you're looking for entry, I would buy in tranches starting at $151 and below.

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