4xForecaster
Long

Allons Enfants! $EUR $USD #euro #ECB #forex

FX:FRA40   CAC 40 Index
421 15 7
Friends,


CAC-40 is nearing a potential resistance at:

- TG-1 = 4816 - 18 FEB 2015.


This level is likely to play out as a significant level of reversal. Predictive model remains mixed as to its reversibility value, although the target is posted as a numerical value (i.e.: most likely to impose a retracement rather than reversal.


EXPECTING A SHALLOW RETRACEMENT, OR ELSE:

In the instance that a retracement occurred from 4816, a significant intermediate structure is likely to offer a temporary support and reversal for further bullish advance. This bullish outlook would cease to exit if and once price breaks below the 4079 level - In such a case, a bearish scenario would dominate, with sight towards TG-Lo = 3430 - 18 FEB 2015.


THE BULLISH OUTLOOK:

If and once price held its bullish tack and remained buoyant above the 4079 - 18 FEB 2015 level (ideally, above 4023 - 18 FEB 2015, in the most aggressively bullish scenario), the next level to mind is 5209 - 18 FEB 2015. This level splits apart the numerical (i.e.: high-probability attainment, low-probability reversal) targets on one side and the nominal (i.e.: low-probability attainment, high-probability reversal) targets on the other side.


WHAT THE SOLID/DASHED ARROWS MEAN:

The solid arrow represents the most probable, most immediate price action. In contrast, the dashed arrows are meant to enumerate the probability pathways, the darker the higher-probability, the lighter the lowest probability.


OVERALL:

L/T outlook favors bulls, although the most immediate scenario is calling for unwinding to the downside. The extent of the retracement should be limited by the levels defined. 4079 would call for a new bearish development, whereas a break above 209 would open to roof to the nominal targets - Both represent major R/S historical levels coming precisely to alignment with the predictive/forecasting model, further underlining their technical relevance.

Stay tuned if you are in the glacier-speed mindset.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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11 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$FRA40 carved a lower-low, retracing from 5209, as described in original analysis (nominal vs. numerical split):


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
05 MAR 2015 - Update:

from Twitter/LinkedIn:
-----------
$CAC hit target again; Look for prob. support at prior; Bullish bias intact:



@tradingview $CAC #cac40 $FRA40 $EUR
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
iefan 4xForecaster


Big boys from higher time frame in the playground, possible AWW forming.....
Reply
Would you buy or sell?
Reply
20 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$FRA40 - Predictive/forecasting model signals high-prob. pullback to 4023 in M/T:



@tradingview $CAC #CAC40
----------





David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
===========
CORRECTION: Typo in the chart - Report with corretion:
===========

20 FEB 2015 - Update:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$FRA40 - Predictive/forecasting model signals high-prob. pullback to 4423 in M/T:



@tradingview $CAC #CAC40
----------





David Alcindor
+1 Reply
iefan 4xForecaster


15 Min TF reveals potential WW completion at point 5 possibly David?
+1 Reply
Yes, as built, it's a WW: It's likely to push thru to 5-prime. If not, then TG is along 1-4 Line. If 5' is reached, then conservative target is at level of Point--4.

In the rarest case, it 5'' is reached, then Point-3 becomes the conservative target upon counter-trend reversal.


David
+2 Reply
iefan 4xForecaster
Thank you very much, will update as price action unfolds. Just practising on the 15 min TF, will start looking for set-ups on the 4 hour charts when I have some more time. Cheers
Reply
iefan 4xForecaster
Negative divergence, down to TG-1 from here.
+1 Reply
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