This level is likely to play out as a significant level of reversal. Predictive model remains mixed as to its reversibility value, although the target is posted as a numerical value (i.e.: most likely to impose a retracement rather than reversal.
EXPECTING A SHALLOW RETRACEMENT, OR ELSE:
In the instance that a retracement occurred from 4816, a significant intermediate structure is likely to offer a temporary support and reversal for further bullish advance. This bullish outlook would cease to exit if and once price breaks below the 4079 level - In such a case, a bearish scenario would dominate, with sight towards TG-Lo = 3430 - 18 FEB 2015.
THE BULLISH OUTLOOK:
If and once price held its bullish tack and remained buoyant above the 4079 - 18 FEB 2015 level (ideally, above 4023 - 18 FEB 2015, in the most aggressively bullish scenario), the next level to mind is 5209 - 18 FEB 2015. This level splits apart the numerical (i.e.: high-probability attainment, low-probability reversal) targets on one side and the nominal (i.e.: low-probability attainment, high-probability reversal) targets on the other side.
WHAT THE SOLID/DASHED ARROWS MEAN:
The solid arrow represents the most probable, most immediate price action. In contrast, the dashed arrows are meant to enumerate the probability pathways, the darker the higher-probability, the lighter the lowest probability.
OVERALL:
L/T outlook favors bulls, although the most immediate scenario is calling for unwinding to the downside. The extent of the retracement should be limited by the levels defined. 4079 would call for a new bearish development, whereas a break above 209 would open to roof to the nominal targets - Both represent major R/S historical levels coming precisely to alignment with the predictive/forecasting model, further underlining their technical relevance.
Stay tuned if you are in the glacier-speed mindset.
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
Big boys from higher time frame in the playground, possible AWW forming.....
Rictrader
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Would you buy or sell?
A-shot
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It looks like it can go up or down or .... anywhere:) Your bias is up?
4xForecaster
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Hello @2use - I don't really have a bias. The model detects a probability of direction. Here, the LT is UP with an intermediate retracement that is expected to not exceed the levels defined. In the most immediate scenario, model offers a probability of retracement at TG-1 = 4816, which would represent the next event in line.
A persistent rally above that level could still call for a retracement to 4423 as the expected level of support, but it should not move any further than 4079. Otherwise, all bullish targets become null and void.
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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20 FEB 2015 - Update:
From Twitter/Linked-In:
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FRA40 - Predictive/forecasting model signals high-prob. pullback to 4023 in M/T:
15 Min TF reveals potential WW completion at point 5 possibly David?
4xForecaster
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Yes, as built, it's a WW: It's likely to push thru to 5-prime. If not, then TG is along 1-4 Line. If 5' is reached, then conservative target is at level of Point--4.
In the rarest case, it 5'' is reached, then Point-3 becomes the conservative target upon counter-trend reversal.
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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FRA40 carved a lower-low, retracing from 5209, as described in original analysis (nominal vs. numerical split):
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David Alcindor