FRAXUSDT: short setup from daily support at 0.76

Jan 27

FRAXUSDT.P is confidently approaching its all-time lows.

Right now, the price is consolidating above the 0.76 level, positioning itself, in my view, for further downside. What caught my attention is the massive drop on Jan 25, followed by the asset simply "hanging" just above the support with minimal volatility. Normally, volatility decreases gradually. Here, we saw a ~25% crash, and the very next day, volatility dropped by a factor of 3.5. This is abnormal.

Two negative factors:

High volatility on the working timeframe (5m).

Immediately below 0.76 lies the historical low (ATL) of 0.742, which could act as an obstacle to a free fall.

My Plan:

Given these factors, I am waiting for the character of the movement to change. Before the breakout, a clean entry point must form on low volatility. I need to see abnormal calmness for this asset — no large, erratic bars.

Looking at the 4H timeframe, observing how cleanly the asset is consolidating and how many times it has hit the 0.76 support, I would still look to initiate a Short from this level.

Feb 2

Order cancelled

Price broke the level from a distance with a single sharp impulse. I did not participate in this move, as I do not place orders when the price is far from the level.