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donaitelo
Mar 20, 2023 7:36 PM

FRC - High Risk vs High Rewards Long

First Republic BankNYSE

Description

Hello Everyone,

A huge oversold situation could be in the making.

FRC is Extremely oversold on fears of bancruptcy or being bought out by JPM soon.

While such case is highly likely, the bank can still rise on any good news as all the bad ones are already baked in the current price.

JPM's CEO is already in the talk with other banks on possible solution for FRC , so this could lead to some good news about the bank and have the price rise. This can make a margin-call for many shorts and lead to a nice retracement back above $20.

Still, it is extremely risky trade, but this is where the highest rewards can be made, so trade at your own risk. Good luck to everyone.

Comment

Trade is going according to plan. If the $20 resistance breaks, next one is around $28 and possibly $40 next. It all depends on the news right now.

Trade closed manually

I don't trust that there are good news to come. Closing the trade here at $15.5. Too much of a risk and mostly flippers. Even if the stock goes up, the fundamentals are too bad now. Most likely the bank will be either heavily diluted or sold out at a huge discount. Good luck to all.
Comments
Wastedg
Good luck brother
donaitelo
@Wastedg, Thank you brother. Looks like the bounce is in play right now. Some of the shorts will be closed above $20, so we will see what comes out of this long. Personal target for me would be between $20 to $35, depending on the magnitude of the move. Tomorrow is the feds decision on interest rates. If we get an increase of the insured deposits today or tomorrow + new injection of cash/investment from the banks and 0.25% interest rate hike with an announced pause, the target would be $35 to $40. It really depends on external factors, but a great risk-reward here
LetsBeMillionaire
@donaitelo, buy the stock and sell covered call when it hits 30+. Premium is very high.
donaitelo
@LetsBeMillionaire, Wish I could. Unfortunately, options are not available in Europe :D
donaitelo
@Mineja, Will post updates today. Expecting to be a great bullish day with a new high of around 25$
jcolburn7
yeah, good luck investing in a failed bank
donaitelo
@jcolburn7, I get your point. The thing is that this is not a long-term play, but a bounce play. It is true, the fundamentals are bad
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