This is an analysis of Frontline PLC - a Norwegian oil transportation company, the following is strictly my own personal opinion and does not constitute financial advice.
Analyst estimates: Analyst estimate average for FRO is 267.5 NOK which is equivalent to a 32.3% increase from todays price.
Key information: FRO has had a significant increase in price the past 6 months, and analysts estimate an increase in both dividends and growth for the company in the coming years.
Technical analysis: FRO made a bullish divergence on the 195-200 support level recently, after a significant sell off the past few weeks the stock did not even drop as a result of dividends being paid out to stock holders, and I see this as a sign of the stock being about to reverse the downwards trend and begin to move back towards my price target of 260-280.
Strategy: I am currently in possession of FRO shares with a GAV of 150 NOK/Share as well as increasing my position on friday for 200 NOK/Share. I am looking to hold these shares until price reaches 260-300 NOK/Share depending on coming events. If the price keeps moving down, I will look to hold my position until the stock reaches my price target regardless, as the dividend payout is significant. This might change if significantly bearish news arise, but I do not see that as a high probability at this moment.
If price reaches my profit target, I will again look at analyst estimates and given there is no change I will exit my position for a significant gain. If analyst estimates increase I will either close part of my position or hold it until bearish divergence on the 4H timeframes.
Update: Still holding both trades taken at 150 GAV and 200 GAV, current average price estimate has risen to above 300NOK/Share. I currently have no plans to close the trade before price reaches 300NOK/Share, furthermore, I’m looking to hold until ~350NOK/Share if there are no changes in fundamentals, and indicators provide a bearish divergence indicating a downturn in the stock price.