Man I love this stuff...hope you enjoy!
How popular is online mobile app gaming?
Zynga's Poker had 6.5m daily users in 2012. This was the latest stat I could find. It is said this app still has millions of users daily...and that was in 2012. More people have access to smartphones than ever before. When discussing a utlity token's success, the economy surrounding the token is paramount. For FunFair, we need to figure out how much of an economy might occurr around the token. Therefore, knowing how many people might be using the token would seem like a good place to start. Also, seeing the revenue generated from a top app would be helpful as well. From Zynga's 2011 Annual Report, revenue from Zynga Poker in 2011 was $159.8m. Translate that into token usage and we are already putting a $0.03 price tag on each FunFair token ($160m / FunFair circulating supply 5B). Yes, this is assuming Zynga keeps all $160m in FunFair and does not sell the token, but keep in mind this is just revenue. This is not taking into account the amount of tokens being held by a user, by a speculator, or by the company itself. Now, if each user has $10 in their account and never loses any money (a user on a top 50 game between 345-54 years old during a 6 month period spends $87.68-145.28 for in app purchases - stat from NPD Group)...and we ONLY look at Zynga's Texas Hold'em with 10 million monthly users, that is $100m in the FunFair token economy. Many will say to me that whales and speculators will drive the price down, but I will say, so what. When you start to have users buying the token daily, cashing in daily, the 'bottom' will be much higher in price than a whale can drive it down.
Now, we are all new to setting a value to a crypto token, and I'm beginning to consider modeling utility tokens for my subscribers, so I'm open to any suggestions out there...and I figure FunFair is a good token to begin figuring this out for. So let's attempt to figure the potential FunFair has within the $45.86B (2017) online gambling market.
Let us get CRAZY conservative and say FunFair is a flop with 5million users across ALL FunFair's games (keep in mind Zynga can use FunFair's technology), each user has an average of $10 in their account, the company holds 25% of their revenue (say revenue was $10m across ALL games) in the token, and speculators are not involved at all. This means the FunFair economy is worth a whopping $52.5m, 50% of the current market cap of FunFair ($117m as of this writing). Not bad. CRAZY conservative you would be looking at $0.01 per token (current price is just over $0.02). If we get optimistic and boost those numbers to 100million users (candy crush topped out at 350m monthly for perspective), each user has $50 in their account, and revenue is boosted to $250m (still 25% in the token)...we now are looking at an economy of over $5B...$1 a token. That might be the far end of the spectrum. However, not all users will be holding $150 simultaneously, FunFair might never be part of a top 50 app, and companies using FunFair might not ever keep their tokens in FunFair. So this is difficult to place guesstimates on.
Market sentiment is so we can expect alt prices to drop . When FunFair has historically broken the uptrend (white support line) that forms during a small bump up in , we fall to the next support. If this pattern hold we will be looking at price between 0.0000034 and 0.0000030. Even if price drops more from here - very likely since is still dropping, this would still be a good entry. On the flip side and are getting ready for an uptrend - historically price has risen during these movements. Again, this is a HODL call, not a quick pick.
Have a great weekend, thank you for reading! Please comment on how I can improve my analysis on a utility token like FunFair.