QuantitativeExhaustion

China Bubble with Symmetrical Trending Moves

AMEX:FXI   ISHARES CHINA LARGE-CAP ETF
China Bubble with Symmetrical Trending Moves

It's obvious we are looking at a equity bubble in China. I'm not worried where this goes, I'm more interested in where this ends. I want to be on the put side of this ETF . I have most likely missed 2/3 of this price move. Volatility and price velocity will be much greater on the downside, and more money can be made when the bubble burst.

Symmetrical Lines
In this chart example I'm focused on large impulsive symmetrical moves on the downside. Both moves on the downside had similar angles. I marked these previous downward moves and added them to where Chinese ETF FXI             brokeout.

Timing the Bust

I'm expecting the bubble to top somewhere between July 13 and August 28 (noted vertical line alarms on chart).

Pattern: Bump and Run

snapshot

Price Trends

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how big is the shoulder?
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+1 Reply
FXI had 5 stages up during 2005 - 2007 bull run, and each run gave about 50% back. Right now it seems it had 2 runs already, and 1st run gave 50% back. I suspect the current run (may just ended, may give back 50% as well). Uncertain if more runs are coming but I tend to believe it SHOULD. So pay attention to the current pullback - it MAY NOT be over, but once it does, it MIGHT BE a WONDERFUL buying opportunity (around $45?). Note this is highly speculative in nature.

snapshot
+5 Reply
2use CosmicDust
Speculative, but a nice observation!
+3 Reply
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-14/tencent-slumps-most-in-a-year-after-billionaire-ma-cuts-stake

Insiders seems to be pretty comfortable selling at this level now.
+2 Reply
So that means we are half to 1/3 of the way through this bull run. How many times have you seen smart money sell at the top? Smart money/insiders use valuations. How can you valuate when you entire market is in a bubble? Irrational Exuberance.
+3 Reply
with refer in my FXI chart, price is in the middle, it can go either way
in a grey situation which is not my style to take action
+2 Reply
the blue zone consolidation looks similar to those in 2006??
snapshot
+4 Reply
Still you hesitate. Why are you not a buyer of Shanghai Index?
+3 Reply
jangseohee QuantitativeExhaustion
wait for retracement
+2 Reply
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