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dchua1969
Jun 27, 2023 11:14 PM

Is China back on recovery ? Long

iShares China Large-Cap ETFArca

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scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3225631/world-gets-message-china-back-road-recovery?module=opinion&pgtype=homepage

reuters.com/markets/currencies/chinas-state-banks-seen-selling-dollars-offshore-slow-yuan-drop-sources-2023-06-27/

scmp.com/business/markets/article/3224066/bullish-china-stock-forecasts-doubted-money-managers-who-see-no-risk-appetite-bank-america-survey

With a crippling property market (businesstimes.com.sg/property/cheap-cabbage-apartments-some-chinese-cities-draw-buyers-and-caution), lower than expected domestic spending, stock market make a U turn barely after a small recovery, fund managers flocking to Beijing to meet top officials to get answers, ongoing US-China trade sanctions, never ending finger pointing at China on Russia , Taiwan, Europe matters, is China economy really back on recovery ?

Well, nobody really knows since the official data released by the Government is also interpreted differently. However, the weekly chart offers some intelligent clues. We are still on a downtrend from the weekly chart and now lies a potential reverse Head and Shoulder pattern. With the latest announcement by the government to the world, I expect the price action to break out this/next two weeks and continue rally.

Note that the recovery is not going to be a 90 degrees sharp rise but sporadic and unevenly distributed amongst different sectors with AI being the top priority for the country moving forward.

Those who wish to buy/accumulate into this ETF can prepare yourself and buy in tranches -
10% now, 20% upon breakout and so on and so forth.

Please DYODD.

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this is the worst thing that an investor wants - a nice breakout but then falls back into the bearish trend line once more

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get ready, it is near to the upper end of the channel again....

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added more last night

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cnbc.com/2023/09/30/chinas-economy-stabilises-factory-activity-returns-to-expansion.html

The last 3 months of the year should be a good time to accumulate shares of great companies. Do your own research

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added more last night

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mudguts222jb
The CCP thinks it can throw sand in the gears of price discovery.
It is only undermining its foundation with these political games.

businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/china-tightens-grip-stocks-net-sale-ban-open-close
mudguts222jb
We will reach Peak Pessimism when the CCP freezes the markets, instead of just tampering with them.
ft.com/content/ae6a3490-b399-4c8f-8e7a-de3318d14f8e
dchua1969
@mudguts222jb, thanks for the article, interesting read.
mudguts222jb
step 1: issuing institutional "Window Guidance" to slow sales
step 2: restrictions on short selling... reuters.com/world/china/china-regulators-ask-funds-restrict-short-selling-stock-index-futures-sources-2024-01-24/
mudguts222jb
"Peak Pessimism?"
Wait until the public accepts that their long-term savings has evaporated with the popping of the real estate bubble.
mudguts222jb
youtu.be/JD3m6U6g53k?si=ucxBZGgQJE_bLZc4
Zeihan:
1) 70% of public wealth in China is invested in real estate (condos)
2) Overbuilding may suggest real estate prices will eventually collapse 90%
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