#GAMZ SHORT
Sell the weakness,Buy the strength.
Richard Dennis
Sell the weakness,Buy the strength.
Richard Dennis
Comment:
GAM Holding AG announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Oct 19, 2023
Return vs Industry: GAM underperformed the Swiss Capital Markets industry which returned -13.5% over the past year.
Return vs Market: GAM underperformed the Swiss Market which returned 0.9% over the past year.
Liontrust Asset Management PLC (LSE:LIO) agreed to acquire GAM Holding AG (SWX:GAM) for approximately CHF110 million.
The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model.
Stable Share Price: GAM is more volatile than 90% of Swiss stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 14% a week.
Volatility Over Time: GAM's weekly volatility (14%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of Swiss stocks.
(Source simplyallstreet)
Liontrust Asset Management PLC (LSE:LIO) agreed to acquire GAM Holding AG (SWX:GAM) for approximately CHF110 million on May 4, 2023. The Consideration will be satisfied by the issue of 9.4 million new ordinary shares in Liontrust. Liontrust Asset Management has agreed to acquire GAM for consideration, valuing each GAM Share at CHF 0.6723.
It is expected that Liontrust will offer 0.0589 Liontrust Shares for one (1) GAM Share (the "Exchange Ratio"). It is expected that GAM shareholders will own approximately 12.6 percent. of the combined group on the completion of the deal. The transaction is subject to minimum tender and approval by acquirer shareholders.
The transaction has been approved by the Swiss Takeover Board (TOB). The Proposed Acquisition is expected to complete in the 4th quarter of 2023. As of May 10, 2023, NewGAMe SA and Bruellan, which controls approximately 8.4% of the issued share capital of GAM Holding AG, has formally challenged the decision of the Swiss Takeover Board regarding Liontrust Asset Management PLC's announced exchange offer for GAM. As of June 9, 2023, Liontrust Asset Management PLc expects to publish both the Circular and Offer Prospectus on or around June 13, 2023
Alantra Corporate Finance LLP is acting as Lead Financial Adviser to the GAM Holding AG in connection with the Proposed Acquisition. Singer Capital MarketsAdvisory LLP is acting as Sole Sponsor, Financial Adviser and Sole Broker to the GAM Holding AG in connection with the Proposed Acquisition. Deloitte LLP is acting as Reporting Accountant and Dentons UK and Middle East LLP as Legal Adviser to the GAM Holding AG in connection with the Proposed Acquisition. JPMorgan Chase & Co. acted as financial advisor for GAM Holding AG.
Claude Lambert, Lorenzo Togni, Stefan Kramer, Richard Stäuber and Micha Fankhauser of Homburger AG acted as legal advisor to GAM Holding AG.
Return vs Industry: GAM underperformed the Swiss Capital Markets industry which returned -13.5% over the past year.
Return vs Market: GAM underperformed the Swiss Market which returned 0.9% over the past year.
Liontrust Asset Management PLC (LSE:LIO) agreed to acquire GAM Holding AG (SWX:GAM) for approximately CHF110 million.
The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model.
Stable Share Price: GAM is more volatile than 90% of Swiss stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 14% a week.
Volatility Over Time: GAM's weekly volatility (14%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of Swiss stocks.
(Source simplyallstreet)
Liontrust Asset Management PLC (LSE:LIO) agreed to acquire GAM Holding AG (SWX:GAM) for approximately CHF110 million on May 4, 2023. The Consideration will be satisfied by the issue of 9.4 million new ordinary shares in Liontrust. Liontrust Asset Management has agreed to acquire GAM for consideration, valuing each GAM Share at CHF 0.6723.
It is expected that Liontrust will offer 0.0589 Liontrust Shares for one (1) GAM Share (the "Exchange Ratio"). It is expected that GAM shareholders will own approximately 12.6 percent. of the combined group on the completion of the deal. The transaction is subject to minimum tender and approval by acquirer shareholders.
The transaction has been approved by the Swiss Takeover Board (TOB). The Proposed Acquisition is expected to complete in the 4th quarter of 2023. As of May 10, 2023, NewGAMe SA and Bruellan, which controls approximately 8.4% of the issued share capital of GAM Holding AG, has formally challenged the decision of the Swiss Takeover Board regarding Liontrust Asset Management PLC's announced exchange offer for GAM. As of June 9, 2023, Liontrust Asset Management PLc expects to publish both the Circular and Offer Prospectus on or around June 13, 2023
Alantra Corporate Finance LLP is acting as Lead Financial Adviser to the GAM Holding AG in connection with the Proposed Acquisition. Singer Capital MarketsAdvisory LLP is acting as Sole Sponsor, Financial Adviser and Sole Broker to the GAM Holding AG in connection with the Proposed Acquisition. Deloitte LLP is acting as Reporting Accountant and Dentons UK and Middle East LLP as Legal Adviser to the GAM Holding AG in connection with the Proposed Acquisition. JPMorgan Chase & Co. acted as financial advisor for GAM Holding AG.
Claude Lambert, Lorenzo Togni, Stefan Kramer, Richard Stäuber and Micha Fankhauser of Homburger AG acted as legal advisor to GAM Holding AG.
Even as anticipation mounts ahead of the US jobs data due later today, investors may be bracing for more volatility in the week ahead thanks to another round of risk events.
Economic Calendar for Next Week
All eyes will be on the incoming US inflation data as well as speeches from financial heavyweights and other risk events which could spark some fresh action across markets.
Monday, May 8
UK bank holiday honouring Charles III coronation
EUR: Germany industrial production, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speech
Tuesday, May 9
CHN: China trade, money supply
AUD: Australia consumer confidence
EUR: ECB Chief Economic Philip Lane speech (IMF)
USD: Fed New York President John Williams speech
US President Joe Biden debt ceiling talks
Wednesday, May 10
EUR: Germany April CPI (final)
USD: US April CPI
Thursday, May 11
CNH: China PPI, CPI
GBP: UK BOE rate decision & press conference
USD: US PPI, initial jobless claims
G7 finance ministers meet in Japan
Friday, May 12
GBP: UK Industrial production, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speech
USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Fed speeches
The April US consumer price index (CPI) report published on Wednesday 10th May will be exactly one week after the Federal Reserve raised rates and signalled a pause in further increases.
Given how Fed Chair Jerome Powell has left the door open to further tightening if incoming economic data warrants, this could add more spice to the report.
CPI Forecasts
Markets are forecasting:
CPI year-on-year (April 2023 vs. April 2022) to remain steady at 5.0%.
Core CPI year-on-year to cool 5.4% from the 5.6% in the prior month.
CPI month-on-month (April 2023 vs March 2023) to rise 0.4% from 0.1% in the prior month.
Core CPI month-on-month to cool 0.3% from the 0.4% in the prior month.
Ultimately, further evidence of inflation slowing down could reinforce expectations around the Federal Reserve pausing and eventually cutting interest rates. Should inflation remain sticky, this could rekindle bets around the Fed leaving interest rates higher for longer.
Expectations are rising over the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates with the chance of a 25-basis point cut in July currently priced at 53%, according to Fed funds futures! It will be interesting to see how the incoming inflation data shapes market expectations around the central bank’s next move.
How Might the Markets React to the CPI Report?
With all of the above discussed, here’s how these 3 assets could react to the US CPI report
USD Index
The past few months have been rough and rocky for the dollar as investors weighed the prospects of the Federal Reserve pausing and then eventually cutting interest rates. More pain could be in store for the dollar if US inflation cools more than expected in April.
A soft inflation print may drag the USD Index toward the 100.72 level. Should prices experience a bearish breakout, this could open the doors toward 100.
A sticky inflation print could throw a lifeline to dollar bulls, propelling back above 101.50 with 102.34 acting as a key level of interest.
SPX500_m
After being trapped within a range for the past few weeks, could a breakout be on the horizon for the SPX500_m?
If the inflation numbers beat expectations, this may trigger a bearish breakout on the SPX500_m – taking prices below the 4050-support level.
Should the inflation numbers come in lower than market forecasts, SPX500_m bulls could be injected with renewed confidence as expectations intensify over the Fed ending its rate cycle. This could send the index back toward the 4180 resistance level and beyond.
Gold
It may be wise to fasten your seatbelts for potential volatility on gold due to its high sensitivity to inflation data and US interest rate expectations. The precious metal remains bullish on the daily charts despite prices pulling back from near-record highs.
A soft inflation report could sweeten appetite for the zero-yielding asset as bets rise over the Fed cutting rates in 2023. This development could push the metal back towards the 2023 high of $2063 with bulls eyeing $2070 and the all-time high at $2075.
A stronger-than-expected inflation number could drag gold prices back toward the psychological $2000 level.