4xForecaster

Backward Market Geometry | #technicalanalysis #forex #fibonacci

FX:GBPAUD   British Pound/Australian Dollar
Friends,

As I come across comments on the charts in which traders overlay simple geometries, I thought I should point out to the ones that have been most important in my experience, in terms of how reliable they have been.


THE STANDARD AB=CD PATTERN:

To start the enumeration of the most common ones, let's name the most obvious ones, the a-b = c-d symmetrical pattern.

In its most mundane form, the a-b = c-d represents a balancing of a geometric             form in which the ab segment is reproduced following a shallower retracement in the order of 0.382 to 0.786 Fibonacci range. What ensues is simply a cut-and-paste version of the a-b segment into a c-d segment.

In the chart, you will see this in the large RED dashed figure.


REITERATION OF THE STANDARD AB=CD PATTERN:

While there is a possibility of reiteration of the ab segment into a c-d, then a e-f segment (see YELLOW pattern in the price field), this represents a lesser occurrence.


FIBONACCI CAN HELP MEASURE THE EXTENT OF THE PATTERN:

The type-A trader might be tempted to look for a perfect replication of a-b into c-d, but this is rarely the case, as the market will expand at its own whim. Be flexible and let the market breathe a little.

Still, the trader interested to keep a pulse on these development should remain on guard with such Fibonacci-paced extensions as 1.272, 1.414 and 1.618 x the b-c segment, or in the case of a reiteration, 1.272, 1.414 or 1.618 x d-e segment.


MOST RELIABLE SIMPLE GEOMETRY:

In my experience, most novice pattern traders have calibrated their visual cortices to scan for forward-moving price action, over which they draw a line and look for a symmetrical repetition, so as to decipher the all-too familiar a-b = c-d symmetrical pattern.

Instead, I recommend that you seek out not the FORE-ward, but instead the BACK-ward leaning price action. In this geometry, you will have to reverse your mind's eyes, looking for a symmetrical repetition in which the a-b = c-b segment is drawn lines leaning in reverse of the standard symmetrical a-b = c-d pattern.

This pattern has a name: The One2One (purple in the chat)


OVERALL:

In my experience, the completion of these symmetrical patterns are rarer, but accompanied by a most forceful price reaction upon completion of the reversed a-b = c-d geometry.

Think backward. Stay ahead.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

Linked-In:
David Alcindor
-----


.
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
11 FEB 2015 - Here is where the One2One pattern standands in the mix:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
hello david what is zoar view on this pair now my idea is short
+1 Reply
12 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$GBPAUD - In a cacophony of patterns, RSI can orchestrate its own harmonic pace:

snapshot


@tradingview #technicalanalysis
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Tech-Note;

Although we ARE indeed dealing with a modified Wolfe Waves pattern ("AWW"), I have not dawn the traditional 1-4 Line ("Take-Profit Line, or "TL Line"). Instead, I have drawn a more proximal level of anticipated support that would offer a probable pause to the decline, IF and once price were to break below its 1-3-5 Line.

In contrast, I suggest that the 1-4 Line for this modified advanced pattern be used as a point of entry in a long prospect, as long as such long position is supported by the trader's own set of indicator/price conditions and corroborated by due diligence of fundamentals.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Addendum - Tech-Note:


snapshot



Here is some occult and less so, if we were to seek a bottom to this potential reversal, using Elliott Wave Principle's own Expanded Flat pattern (A-B-C), wherein Point-C is by definition exceeding the origination point of Wave-A, just as Point-B is to A's termination level.

The target is based on a nodule's core geometry, offering by an interim retracement. This level is occult, but not so irrelevant as to being ignored.

Let's first see whether bears are able to mount an offensive first and foremost.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
thanks
Reply
12 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$GBPAUD - Worst-case scenario: Is an #elliottwave Expanded Flat at work?

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD #BOE #RBA #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
12 FEB 2015 - Update: Occult Core Geometries & Fibonacci Alignment ...

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$GBPAUD: Occult core geometries and 50% #fibonacci aligning at 1.85996; Suggesting reversal from top?

snapshot


@tradingview
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor


====================

Friends,

Aside from charting like a mad man about 18hrs a day, my real focus over the years have been studying hidden, or occult, geometries in the financial markets.

Here, I thought to share an inkling of what one should consider looking for, especially in choppy, retracing, coiling markets. What is shown in the chart are a series of highs and lows. These highs and lows have relative depth which will differentiate one another from being a Euclidean module, a node or a nodule (I won't go into more details here, but know simply that they are real geometric phenomenons that will impart a particular supportive or resistive effect upon price, or even be forecasting of price action, depending on the geometry in consideration).

What is most important here is to realize that each of the geometries in which an impulse is poised into a simple zig-zag or more complex geometry will define a high and low whose core (50% center, or here, let's call it its 50-Fib level), has relevance in both present, past and future price action.

The present relevance is by its own existence. As it completes, a 50% level is defined, and that level will project horizontally in both directions: Past and future.

If the geometry is large enough, then that 50% core is likely to resonate with prior R/S levels. This is important for the present development of the geometry, as it can often be relied upon that the 50% core that is still under development might in fact remain true to its geometry and to its past (i.e.: a current high and low will not be surpassed, and the geometry willl remain as is until price moves out of its weaving action which defines the underlying geometry).

In the future, this is where it is worth projecting lines forward. These lines are neither entries, stops or trading-related cues, unless they are used at 4 times the lesser timeframe (i.e.: in a 4-hour chart, a trade in the H1 should consider these lines, as much as a M15 should relative to H1 chart.


EUCLIDEAN MATHEMATICS & FINANCIAL MARKETS:

It has been my observation, and this as a result of simply watching the markets since 1997, that all moves have for common a divisor, or denominator, that can take all shapes, ranges, length and volumes, and reduce it to one simple geomtric value. I believe that this value is Fibonacci derived, and that it can be no other than Psi, its golden mean - but this is no revelation to the technician.

What is more to my observation is that, all things being equal, and by this I would imply that the Euclidean geometries that affect the financial markets, price can be reduced to its smallest momental unit, which is what I often use in my price projections, although this is merely an adjunct to the Predictive & Forecasting Model, which has added far more precision to this occult geometric based approach.

Nonetheless, it should be known to the pattern trader that the pattern is as much a cloak over a skeleton frame as the robe is to the monk, and that it will NOT forward any information as to the precise turn-around point of, say Point-D of a Bat. This is not to discredit pattern trading, since it has a place in both pacing the general moves of the markets, as much as it has to play as a carrot to the junior Pavlovian traders.

For this and other reason, I recommend the trader to use price as a backdrop in trading activities, and instead to filter markets through all available means, be it indicators, geometries, and the more occult means.

Before a presentation to a large group of international traders, I had projected $XAU to fall. That projection came in when it was carving higher highs, and a decline in the abysmal levels this geometry-based projection had offered became less and less of a derisory concept, as price fell hit target deadon and reversed to higher highs. Besides the self-inflating nature of this anecdote (because I was quite proud that it did hit right in the week of my presentation), it also serves to make a point that the field of technical analysis is both a beaten path for those who are making a few steps onto it, but it can also become a real adventure, full of esoteric ideas, psychedelic nights of insane thoughts. But it all starts by looking beyond price. As some know my saying: "Price is the carrot that dangles at the end of a stick, held by institutional hands". So, take the time to learn, unlearn and make your own fray in the brittle vegetations of the technical fields. Step wherever you can, so long as it does not have a footprint before you.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Euclid's "Greatest Common Divisor" - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greatest_common_divisor

David
+1 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David! One H&S pattern fits perfect to your reversal expectation.
snapshot
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO nikokoev
2 years ago
Hello @nikokoev - Watch out for the probable bounce to the level of the right shoulder, and potentially to the 1.99750 level, although less probable. On the downside scenario, a fall to 1.93025 looks otherwise possible, corresponding to a prior R/S level in the daily chart. Very nice.

David
+2 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thank you David! I'm short already at 1.9875 and will not hurry to replace my stop at lower level.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO nikokoev
2 years ago
Ah, ah - Then, we might perhaps be the only two shorts - David
+1 Reply
shenkw85 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I am the 3rd short :), have been accumulating my short since the break out from 1.9665
snapshot
, anticipating a retracement to 1.9378 level @ the 61.8 level from the high of round number @ 2.002
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO shenkw85
2 years ago
Nice. Then, welcome to the Nautilus - Prepare the goggles, fill the tanks ... If gold rises and BOE disappoints, that will be all the weight needed to clear the surface.

David
+1 Reply
iznogood 4xForecaster
2 years ago
We were three...hahah!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iznogood
2 years ago
It's getting cramped in this sub-marine.

:-)

David
+1 Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
2 years ago
two shorts and lot of long. is it dangerous not? lol
+1 Reply
iznogood
2 years ago
major battle @ support captain David... :)
snapshot
+1 Reply
iznogood iznogood
2 years ago
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iznogood
2 years ago
Hello @iznogood - I has a good chance of rising beyond the Sharp in your chart ... Very possibly.

A Shark can be a whimsical pattern to control. In its contracted form, the Shark allows for a 0-X x 0.886 reversal to define is termination at Point-C. However, it can also, and often, aims for an expanded Point-C = 0-X x 1.141. In the former (contraction), the price action remains internal to the retracement, and the reversal from Point-C is typically a 50% retracement to finally create the 5-0 pattern, which has its "normalized" points drawn as X-A-B-C-D, terminating at Point-D. In the latter (expanded form), the Shark will move beyond the Point-zero, at the Fibonaci range defined as 0-X x 1.414. Here too, the retracement from the termination point of the Shark, represented by Point-C, will see price reversal by the same 50% retracement.

The geometric event I have encountered the most is a validation of the Shark's Point-A, which represents the small rally occurring from Points 0 and X before a new depth is reached to give the Shark its odd lower-low geometric identity. That lower low would thus be Point-B, and a rallying from there has to reach a MINIMUM of a 1.414 extension relative to Points 0 and X.

Once Point-C is defined, then a reversal in the order of 50% is typical, since the Shark pattern is a pseudo-pattern 9in the sense where its points start at zero, allowing the offset enumeration of the geometric points that eventually create a true pattern: Scott Carney's 5-0 pattern.

David Alcindor

+3 Reply
17 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$GBPAUD prepares bullish counter-offensive; Remains capped at 1.994; Wins > 2.0:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD #BOE #RBA
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
17 FEB 2015 - Addendum:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$GBPAUD rallying into the level shown in H4 chart would satisfy a last RSI validation; Bears prevail:

snapshot


@tradingview
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I like it, BOE hints at a rate hike, gold suddenly rallies and market falls on good news...one of many possible scenarios.
Reply
18 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$GBPAUD surging as forecast; Overhead resistance @1.99400 in force; Still capped @2.00003:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP #BOE
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
iznogood
2 years ago
bat @ 1.9980
snapshot
Reply
DanLaffas iznogood
2 years ago
My thoughts are a smaller Cypher and/or larger Gartley could be on the cards.
$GBPAUD Potential Cypher Pattern

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO DanLaffas
2 years ago
Hello @DanLaffas - I lost all my money and sanity on thinking. I've since taken my daily medicine dose of predictive/forecasting model, so that I don;t have to fret too much about all the possibilities in the world.

Geometric patterns result from price, and price result from foreseeable algorithmic patterns - The algorithmic patterns result from the model, and I let the model offer its rating of probable price direction, strength and reversal - I could not do my charting without the Model - Thing is, the Model does not look at price at all. It only estimates properties which are then transposed in the price field, corresponding to a price at the end.

When I used to trade via patterns, I concentrated entries at Point-C (which led me to develop the E.A.G.L.E. strategy), and later discovered correlations in non-price events that made these entries quite precise, irrespective of the underlying pattern. Once I tweaked the Model to define exit levels, then I dumped the patterns.

In an anatomical analogy, patterns are overlays of price action, and price action is the bare minimum skeletal structure of the market. But the real source, the "DNA" of the price lies in invisible non-price events, which is what the Model purports to do - It has worked very well over the years.

David
+5 Reply
DanLaffas 4xForecaster
2 years ago
If only we had your predictive/forecasting model though ;) Thankfully I am only paper trading forex while I learn some skills and develop my own trading plan. I am starting to post my thoughts and trading ideas in the hope of getting feedback and better developing my understanding of the greater market and it's mysterious ways.

I did ask Akil Stokes in one of his charts about his thoughts on trading the C leg of an anticipated pattern. He mentioned they used to trade it and called it an 'Aggressive C' trade. He also mentioned that while they (Akil, Jason Stapelton etc) did not have great success with it, that you were the only trader he knew of that could trade it consistently. It is great to now know that your E.A.G.L.E. strategy is the descendant of this Aggressive C.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO DanLaffas
2 years ago
Hello @DanLaffas - Yes, the E.A.G.L.E. concept was born out of @Jason_Stapleton's Aggressive-C entry, which he estimated using the 0.786/0.886 Fib range as his entry. The refinement I have brought to exacting an entry, defining a Stop-Loss that would allow for a minimal loss with re-entry possibility, and a target, which is a late addition to the strat, as this came with the emergence of the predictive/forecasting model.

Once the predictive/forecasting model was developed fully, I used it to exact the entry in what used to be the 0.786/0.884 range, and used it to look at the possibility of failure versus probability of price reversing in the intended direction versus estimating a stop-loss in case of an adverse excursion (i.e.: when price breaks beyond Point-A within a X-A-B-C-D patterned system, where the A-B-C is the core geometry used in the Model (also referred to as the "geometric seed", and later on used in the Euclidean Modules).

If you look at the current situation, the "seed" is potentially forming at this point, estimated within the 1.99400 to 2.00003 range, but not exceeding the structural height that was most recently carved ("All-Time-High, or "ATH" in terms of structural analysis).

If and once price reverses from this seed, which in its entirety is the E.A.G.L.E. (having established a SL, an entry point and a series of probability based targets - Both "Numerical Targets": High-prob-hit/low-prob-reversal defined as TG-1, TG-2, TG-3, ... etc., in contrast to "Nominal Target": Low-Prob-hit, high-prob-reversal, defined as TG-Hi/Lo and TG-Hix/Lox), then it is merely a matter of letting price move on towards the targets one after another.

I have a lot of these examples shown in the linked archives where this E.A.G.L.E. allows for RR in the order of 1:5, 1:10, up to 1:30's, where 200, 300, 500, 700 pips are achieved. I used to run these charts live on Facebook when I entertained the 4xQuad.com page - Feel free to peruse that page if it is still available, and if not, all of these charts are archived and easily accessible for anyone's review - I hate to make claims of these pips a be confused for someone having something to sell. I simply do not have anything to sell, and there is no ulterior intention here, except to run a clear, honest, and well-publicized performance - The study I was running at the time for several weeks was named 10-WoW, for 10% week over week - Just take a look at the archives and you will see how precise that calls were.

As far as the model now, it cannot be shared. However, I can tell you one honest thing, which is something that @JasonStapleton said rightfully one day (paraphrasing here), which is that no matter how clear and concise the instruction given away to any trader regarding a simple system, it will consistently produce a lot of losers, even if the system is meant to be 100% winner (which is impossible, btw). What Jason was saying is that traders are diverse in types and personalities, and there will always be a great enough a number to fail the safest, best winning system, simply because of the real issue in trading: The novice trader bundles up with lethal devices in the expectation to meet the enemy out there in the ethereal world of electronic trading.

What the novice trader learns instead is to look at the computer screen not as a window into a battlefield in which he joins an infinite numbers of flying dagger-like orders, but into a mirror of a misunderstood self.

Only then will he realize that the real strategy in trading begins with knowing the person pressing the enter key, as well as why and when. Once this is secured as a knowledge base, he will drop all indicators and any other forms of armament, which were used to blur self and blame others. The true trader is naked, not even a stone in hand.

When someone posts "I believe that ..." or "in my opinion, ..." attempting at a directional opinion, I will assume that he speaks through a perception of indicators that serve to buttress an otherwise unsecured (not insecure!) understanding of what action his self would be taking.

What I mean by this is that one has to be able to enter without any other justification but the fact that the system calls for it. Once a system, either automatic or not, emits the directional signal, then that is the order, direction and position to take. I do not believe in the so-called robotization of trading in so far as to remove all emotions from trading. In fact, I have exceedingly high emotions in all of my trades (I get excited that the system might work once again, or that it might fail and send me back to more refinement by hunting for a reason behind any failure). But the entry, stop-loss, targets are all system-defined by the model. The model is as finite as the letters of this paragraph, and it is defined to look for a set of circumstance that is aleatory in nature, but once it fits the conditions, the system engages in a series of stop-loss, entry and target definition that I cannot dispute.

The only times I tried to dispute it, I would lose most of the time, and in the rare occasions, it served no great purpose ... simply because the model has already been pushed through so many markets, timeframes, seasons and periods of sustained rallies, declined or sideways that it had nothing else to teach me, except that of accepting that I had reached a viable end of a long-term research.

Long-story short, the real trader is the one that YOU, I and everyone else has to let through. There is no worse activity than parallel talking, parallel playing or parallel trading. If you ever did anything intuitive and manual, such as play the piano, use a tool with intricate skills, this should then serve as an example. Thinking mindfully about doing something that is usually done without paying attention to it will disrupt the process of doing it efficiently - There are many actions that we learn to do, repeat over and over and become automated. But the mere process of thinking about that very action while doing it will mess up the process of completion.

In a way, learning about what makes us fearful, greedy, in pain or anxious and defining a trading system that incorporates this will simply free you, I and anyone else from having to labor through what becomes an autonomic function, just as digestion, sleeping or thinking while driving can becomes to all of us.

My wife was so fearful to hit the wall while biking that she ended up hitting the wall, not because she had to purge herself of that fear by realizing it, but simply because the fear came to over-ride (literally) a normal function. In the same way, a trader will lose because of the mere fear of it. And perhaps there is comfort in what is familiar. Hence, the purpose of trading is to first develop a knowledge of self, and only then an interest in winning, not as a pleasure source, but as a mere habit.

One trader that has a philosophy that I like a lot is @Akil_Stokes. Akil has a process of removing one faulty thinking after another, much like peeling the outer layers of wham we think we are, and little by little getting to lightened up version of oneself, one that carries a positive weight of self awareness, and a lessened load of mistakes, shed one after another along the way - he calls it "Kaizen", I believe.


David Alcindor
+5 Reply
DanLaffas 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Wow, fantastic post David.

If anyone is interested in @JasonStapleton thoughts on what David paraphrased in paragraph 6, check out his video here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDLXKtWbtm8 from the eMoneyShow. In the first few minutes he demonstrates 'historical perspective'. I highly recommend watching this and some of his other material.
+2 Reply
19 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$GBPAUD: Rallied as forecast; Still expecting bullish target validation:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD #BOE #RBA #forex
----------



snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
19 FEB 2015 - Addendum:

From Twitter:
----------
$GBPAUD - In the big picture, RSI will likely command the reversal pending last validation:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David, what is the blue line with dots starting from point 1 in the above graph;. How do you create it;
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO takefal
2 years ago
Hello @takefal - WW's TP Line from point1 and point4.

David
+2 Reply
20 FEB 2015 - Update: Happy Friday!

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$GBPAUD continues to move per forecast; Floor now opens to immediate BEARISH targets:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD #BOE
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
There is a general weakness in GBP since last night's GBPUSD's leading diagonal triangle's resolution.
Small retrace in...interesting how the same moves replicate in multipe GBP pairs, but at a slightly different pace, and midly different shapes. Same underlying weakness in the background after an extended move up though.
Reply
24 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPAUD bullish advance arrested at forecast line; > 2.00003 invalidates bearish outlook:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
26 FEB 2015 - Update:

Tech-Note:

Expectig a quick whipsaw to the upside from 1.96528.

However, a brea below 1.95683 will open floor to next targets.

Note also that I added nominal targets as of this chart, namely:

1 - TG-Lo = 1.87458 - 26 FEB 2015

and

2 - TG-Lox = 1.85389 - 26 FEB 2015

(1.85389 represents the model's outer-most, least probable bound - See chart below)


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
... Basically, 1.98733 has YET to be tested.

David
+3 Reply
manijeh.kazemi.33 4xForecaster
2 years ago
hello david may I know what is the reason that you think there will be a retest to 1.98733
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
Hello @manijeh.kazemi.33 - Just a probability event, but not a strong one - David
+1 Reply
manijeh.kazemi.33 4xForecaster
2 years ago
thanks david
+1 Reply
shenkw85 manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
Waiting for the support @ 1.95683 to be broken and we can look forward to 1.93319 level;0.236 level :)
+2 Reply
manijeh.kazemi.33 shenkw85
2 years ago
thanks shenkw85
+1 Reply
takefal manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
David, what is the difference between the nominal target mentioned here and numerical objectives; They differ in their successful outcome or is there some other explanation;
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO takefal
2 years ago
Hello @takefal:

The nominal target and numerical target are different by their relative probability of price ever reaching them, and by the change that price might either retrace or reverse. This means that:

1 - Numerical Targets (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, TG-3, ... etc.) offer a HIGH probability of being hit, but a LOW probability of causing a reversal
2 - Nominal Targets (i.e.: TG-Hi/Low and their extremes, TG-Hix/TG-Lox) offer a LOW probability of being hit, but a HIGH probability of causing a reversal.

The most important aspect of this is that:
1 - Numerical targets help define hidden geometries, such as nodes and nodules (i.e.: discreet, temporary RETRACEMENTS whose geometric center will cast a WEAK R/S level in the future, and often line up with significant structures or R/S levels from the past
2 - Nominal targets will define tip-top and bottom-tip REVERSALS - Very often, you will see that price will bounce off of these levels, then go beyond them in a way that creates a symmetry right around the Nominal Target, and then reverse.

Note that in these empirical observations that have remained unrelated but used as supportive events in the overall predictive/forecasting model, the NUMERICAL targets are associated with RETRACEMENTS, in contrast to NOMINAL targets, which are associated with REVERSALS.

The difference between a reversal and a retracement in the context of these targets is that:
1 - Retracement refer to price turn-around in the Fibonacci order that will NOT exceed 0.618. So, a typical price reaction to a numerical target would cause a temporary retracement in the order of 0.382, 0.500 or 0.618 in most cases. In the most aggressive markets, 0.214 or even 0.114 would occur, which are nothing else than complements of 0.786 and 0.886, respectively.
2 - Reversals refer to price turn-around in the Fibonacci order that WILL exceed 0.618, and might reach 0.786, 0.886 as far as contraction events, or event expansions of 1.272, 1.414, or 1.618 in the most counter-aggressive markets.

These levels are determined by the very geometric nature of the targets. In contrast, the targets are defined by non-price events - Combined together, the model benefits from both a directional bias signal (direction, strength) as well as from a deterministic signal (target for retracement vs. reversal), all of which constituting the "Model".

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Rule of scale or timeframe here is that FAILURE of a NOMINAL TARGET at a given timeframe means that a higher timeframe is in control of price - That igher timefarme is in the order of 4.

Hence, a failure at M15 means that a controlling actor exists at M15 x 4 = H1 at a very minimum, and that a failure at H1 would mean H4, and H4 at daily (exception is made here to look at 6 times the frame, although TradingView will let you look at H4 x 4 = H16 by simply typing 16 and H.

The rule of scale simply implies that better financed, larger funded forces will interfere with the normal model, and the model only has a system of failure such as these defined above to signal that a temporary interference will trash the model.

The rule also implies that that higher the source of the interference (say it comes from a DAILY level), the less frequent it will occur, but the longer lasting its directional effect on price. This is simply verifiable by, say a major banque liquidating a position in a way that is controlled over several days or weeks, allowing Fib-paced moves.

Best is to look at the hierarchy of forces, such that Central bank > Major bank > Institutional Traders > Retail traders.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thank you David, you are always concise in your answers and help me a lot. Thank you again !!!!!
+1 Reply
26 FEB 2015 - Uprate:

Climbing back up that interminable consolidation staircase to nowhere, until it reaches the rooftop of that geometry and likely reverse back down in a counter-consolidation - Consolidation patterns are just that, time-consumptive geometries allowing retail traders to give up and institutional players to load up.

snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
27 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPAUD rallied as forecast; 1.98733 remains probable cap; WW might help price walk there:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
03 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPAUD continues to move as forecast; Completed WW; Validation at purple arrow sets bearish tone:

snapshot


@tradingview
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
04 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPAUD steps across 1.95683 structure once again; Floor may cede to TG-1:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD #BOE #RBA #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+5 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Nice! I got in on the retest of the lower trendline...covered half and now BE stop. Good times.
+1 Reply
shenkw85 4xForecaster
2 years ago
It has been quite a wait for this break. Good thing is shorting the GBPAUD has a positive carry :)
+1 Reply
iznogood 4xForecaster
2 years ago
BE to!
Reply
05 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPAUD stumbles across forecast levels; Remains on tack towards targets:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD #BOE #RBA #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
06 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPAUD hit TG-1 as forecast; Recoiled to prior R/S; Remains Bearish:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD $USD #BOE #RBA #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
hello david thanks
Reply
13 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$GBPAUD rolled from geo.; mulls around prior target; Break < 1.92687 opens floor:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD #BOE #RBA
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
HiTech PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
looks like we might continue going down
GBPAUD REVERSING OR CORRECTING
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HiTech
2 years ago
Yes, bears are still in control in this one per model - David
+4 Reply
23 MAR 2015 - Update:

$GBPAUD coming down nicely as forecast.

David
+2 Reply
23 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPAUD hit its second target at 1.90587; Remains bearish; Eyes 1.87458:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD #BOE #RBA #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
02 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPAUD hit target at 1.94589; Rallied further to complete background geo. along 1-4 Line:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out