Taking a closer look at this pair..., see linked idea. Looking at other options and/or possible further unravelling of the longterm situation.
Mind the timeframe!!, (Very) longterm!!
Anyway, this is a potential roadmap to base my further trades on and a variation on the other idea I posted before.
Bat and butterfly patterns in the back are very premature (wishful thinking...) and are there only for reference and to keep in mind for possible future targets.
The point where we are now (or better where we were when PA peaked in August) is right at a crucial fib level (50% and 61.8% depending on where you start the move) and the ending of an AB=CD harmonic pattern (see my previous post). We are seeing some resistance at this level and if this holds we could be looking at the start of a considerable retracement to a lower SR zone (based on previous structure and fibonacci). If we don't get below 2.0000 we might continue the next big move up towards the 2.5-2.6 levels and completion of 2 patterns: a bearish 3 drives pattern and a possible completion of a bat pattern (pink)!!
If we go down from here and get below the 2.0000 level (probably not this year) I will be looking to go short, hoping to get to a possible C leg of the big yellow bat pattern (I know it's soon).
I have put some trades on the chart for reference but please note I am not taking these trades!! I will only use this chart as a possible personal roadmap giving global directions and will enter trades only on shorter timeframes in this global direction, as long as PA does not invalidate it!!
I am currently short from 2.2000 based on another pattern posted by another member:
Comments
KVE
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For my diary: This pair has been good for me, made some profit on the move down in the past week. The short from 2.0000 mentioned in the initial post was closed in profit @ 1.1962 (+38 pips), and 2.1988 (+12 pips) when PA reversed and we got to a new high. Re-entered short on a small timeframe trendline break setup @ 2.2030 and took full profit @ 2.1951 (+79 pips). PA reversed again and I re-entered again short today @ 2.1928, which was as good as the top (!), booked partial profit @ 2.1828 (+100 pips) and 2.1801 (+127 pips), still got a part open now, in profit @ 2.1763, leaving it open during the weekend with SL @ BE...
I do expect some support around 2.1700 so I'll probably close the remaining part there! Will still be looking for shorts and a new entry after a possible retracement, there's a trendline lower, so I still see some downward potential, at least until about 2.1600 and then it's wait and see again for confirmation on a possible move further down (see chart for the big S/R zone and possible reversal to a new up trend.
Will try to publish some of my future trades on this pair on smaller timeframes next week, didn't quite find the time to do so this week, hope I find the time next week... A picture says more than a 1000 words and that way I don't have to write down all of these short-term trades in this longer-term analysis...
FullTimeTrader
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Well done!! I was doing also a long term analysis, my prefered scenario is the three drives and the bat. Having this in mind i will look for shorts this days/weeks and then bullish possible after GBP rate hike.
I do expect some support around 2.1700 so I'll probably close the remaining part there! Will still be looking for shorts and a new entry after a possible retracement, there's a trendline lower, so I still see some downward potential, at least until about 2.1600 and then it's wait and see again for confirmation on a possible move further down (see chart for the big S/R zone and possible reversal to a new up trend.
Will try to publish some of my future trades on this pair on smaller timeframes next week, didn't quite find the time to do so this week, hope I find the time next week... A picture says more than a 1000 words and that way I don't have to write down all of these short-term trades in this longer-term analysis...