Nico.Muselle
Long

GBPAUD - Potential bullish bat pattern

FX:GBPAUD   British Pound/Australian Dollar
576 23 13
This pair is signing lower highs lower lows and broke below the B-point of the potential bat pattern . We already saw a spike into the potential reversal zone (yellow) on Friday and it since failed to break above the previous high leading me to thinking that a further descent certainly is possible. The bat completes at the .886 retracement of XA which is confluent with the 1.618 extension of AB.

This is a longer term trade (most probably a couple of days) and the Risk/Reward ratio is good. However, as X is over 100 pips away and stops need to go below that we are looking at a quite large stop loss, so make sure that you check the risk profile before you enter this trade. A potential reward of 270 pips to target 1 and 450 pips to target 2 could be yours.

Good luck and may the pips be with you !
DuKe_QC
2 years ago
Just curious about this pattern... why did you not complete it with the wick of the 3rd candle from the right ?
+1 Reply
FeelsFX DuKe_QC
2 years ago
same question here
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Nico.Muselle MOD DuKe_QC
2 years ago
Excellent question ! My belief is that price action will go down again to this level hence my reason to still draw in the pattern. If I would complete the pattern with that wick down, the pattern would have been completed (in theory it is), and I would be late to enter the trade. Since price failed to break to the updside a create a new high, I still think there is potential for downside and (re-)completion of this pattern. Only time will tell, but I put it on my watchlist ! :)
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle MOD Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
With re-completion it could actually create a double bottom, which would be an extra confirmation to go long. :)
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DuKe_QC Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
Excellent answer :) Thanks !
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gdavidespinoza
2 years ago
Great job of reading the bars Nico!
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle MOD gdavidespinoza
2 years ago
Welcome ! And even if the pattern was completed, we did not reach TP1 yet. Often we see a re-test of the PRZ before the actual reversal kicks in, that is what I am actually looking for in this case.
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On daily chart it is showing probable harmonic behaviour. Even on 4 hour it is harmonics I believe. My zone is at 61.8 fib retracement level. Would love to hear your thoughts please.
#GBPAUD Daily Long Idea (Structure, Fib, Harmonics, 3Drives)
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle MOD TradeYodha
2 years ago
It is difficult to compare a daily chart with a daily chart as the timeframe is 6 times as big. On the daily chart I think we currently reached the .382 retracement of the previous move up. The overall trend on the daily is still bullish, so a trade in that direction certainly is not a bad idea. Nevertheless, on the daily we can logically expect a further retracement to the downside into previous structure as you indicated. What I am looking for is a small retracement to the upside which is definitely possible given the reasons I specified in my chart.

So, summarized, daily could see some further downside, 240 a small retracement to the upside very likely. Does that answer your questions ? :)
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TradeYodha PRO Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
great. Thanks mate. Appreciate your comments
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Nico.Muselle MOD TradeYodha
2 years ago
You are welcome, thanks for looking into my ideas as well ! :)
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FeelsFX
2 years ago
Q: Would you have moved your SL to breakeven or a bit under the .382 when u went through it. Or just using TS and if yes what's its price range.
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HiTech PRO
2 years ago
Nico, I think buying could be a bit early? :)
GBPAUD REVERSING OR CORRECTING
lets see how it goes
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Nico.Muselle MOD HiTech
2 years ago
True, the pair is still in a retracement of the last move up and we can be looking at a further move down till around 1.9170's. Nevertheless, a little move up into previous support resistance (yellow box) is definitely possible. I'll be looking closely at price action and if it breaks the current PRZ to the down side I am definitely not entering a long trade. If however price respects the PRZ and we see higher lows we might see the retracement I am looking for.
snapshot
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HiTech PRO Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
hhh, the yellow box also seems to high for the time being, you see my R1 level, it just bounced off it, doesn't' look that it will go any more higher. Soon we'll find out
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle MOD HiTech
2 years ago
Only time will tell :)
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Nico.Muselle MOD HiTech
2 years ago
As predicted, we touched the yellow box and dropped back to the PRZ
snapshot
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HiTech PRO Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
yey, nice Nico
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle MOD HiTech
2 years ago
Guess I was lucky :)
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IvanLabrie PRO Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
Did you book some profits there Nico?
Taking out that whole advance in a swift move looks rather bearish, but I'm not too convinced with Aussie strength though...might drift sideways for a bit before Carney speaks again.
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I took some pips from the move upwards yes... :)
Not sure where it will go now though ... like you said, we'll have to wait and see, price at a decision level now.
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IvanLabrie PRO Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
Ok, good idea to unwind at that high before rebounding...now wait a bit and see.
I went long euraud heh, and eurnzd. Talk about crazy...
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Depends on the target you are looking for. For both pairs there is some structure a little up. Longer term I would not go long on them though for now.
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