RichardEdwards
Short

Trade: GBP/AUD - Short Position

FX:GBPAUD   British Pound / Australian Dollar
72 views
4
I have entered a short position in Pound / Aussie on the daily rejection and close below the declining trend line and previous support. This trade offers good risk reward at almost 4:1 with a stop above the previous days high. My longer term bias would be too the upside and I think this is just a correction and we could expect a further rise on the break of the falling channel but this may not be likely until April - May time, but for now I am holding short.

Fundamentally I think both currencies are weak albeit the pound stronger in the long term. Sentiment lately would likely see the pound weaken further before any gains. Mark Carney speaks in Paris tomorrow and if he continues a dovish tone then we may see this trade kick off. I would pull my stop loss to even if this happens ahead of the Australian employment report on Thursday. BOE are expected to hold their rate at 0.50% on Thursday.

Unless this trade turns against me right away I should have the opportunity to lock it in at break even.

Please comment back.
Trade active: @ 2.0787
Comment: The trade got off to a good start with both UK manufacturing and industrial production missing estimates. It was then further accelerated by the positive trade balance from China. I moved my stop loss to break even and this was nearly tested today as price has retraced a lot of the initial profits. A lot now lies on a positive Aussie employment report.

The trade emphasises that although the technical all point in the right direction, you need a few consecutive data releases to support the sentiment.
Trade closed: stop reached: @ 2.0787 I pulled the stop in to break even before the Aussie employment release as the market started to trace yesterday. In hindsight it would have paid to hold out with my original stop but I wanted to reduce my risk.

Capital preservation is high on my to-do list this year as well as work on money management and patience. I had a good crack at this trade but at least no capital was lost. I will now wait for a break out of this channel where there will be plenty of potential to gather some pips.

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