QuantumLogicTrading
Short

SELL GBPAUD: STRAT TRADE - 7 DAYS UP P=99.746% 8TH DAY LOWER

FX:GBPAUD   British Pound/Australian Dollar
7 months ago
b]GBPAUD:

1. Sterlingaussie has been aggressively bid higher for the last 7-days on the back of sterling data outperforming last week, broad aussie weakness and a general recovery from lows.

2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 8th day or more of buying is 0.254% which means there is an implied 98.78% chance that we move higher today - I like these odds so will add a short here.

- If we were to see another day of buying, a 8th day, then the probability of a 9th day is even better on the sell-side odds of 99.918% so i will add to shorts if this is the case - the max number of buying days in GBPAUD             has been 10d once and 9d 3 times, 8d 7 times.

3. Plus aussie 30 bill rates firmed up on monday implying only a 5% chance of a september cut down from 8% of the past week, and sterling OIS             rates came off from Fridays rally after the market decided to fade last weeks data.

- Also we have found some technical price resistance at the 1.72 handle so being short here makes sense.

Trading strategy - GBPAUD             Sell @1.740:

1. Short GBPAUD             pretty much at market TP should be 100-200pips lower.

2. Short small and add if we move higher again on thursday - friday imo is the most likely day for a sterling sell-off as shorts are squared up on profit taking.

3. I also like being short gbpnzd             and gbpusd             from 1.81 and 1.325 - both have 100-200 easy pips - especially on a UK GDP miss on friday.
7 months ago
Comment: Update:

1. Excel Calculations summary photo - https://filetea.me/t1sl92NbaxfSfGrkXVASYTDmQ
7 months ago
Comment: Update:

1. Strat trade goes 3/3 - EUR$ and $Index last week came in with stats too
isaac312 PRO
7 months ago
master! dont you wanna work in HF?? very curious
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QuantumLogicTrading isaac312
7 months ago
Haha ive spent time in sell side at GS but no i dont really, im happy trading PA - HF trading is v v v difficult to break into + job security is low im better just doing it myself
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isaac312 PRO
7 months ago
this is excellent plan
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QuantumLogicTrading isaac312
7 months ago
Yup, get short small and add if we move higher - i think friday will be the day we come down when stelring short profit taking kicks in, though upside GDP revisions could be a risk here but equally downside revisions will likely sell GBP off aggressively. but i like being short gbpaud anyway given the IR differential, especially in this yield grabbing market (sinc e 2016 negative rates environment) also firm firm aussie data last week.. and UK PMI's due next week which should show more downside in the economy i dont mind holding short for a while 1.700 the aim.
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TomUnderwood
7 months ago
Awesome!

Can you please tell me how you determined or calculated these figures?
"Plus aussie 30 bill rates firmed up on monday implying only a 5% chance of a september cut down from 8% of the past week"
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QuantumLogicTrading TomUnderwood
7 months ago
Have you seen the excel here? https://filetea.me/t1sl92NbaxfSfGrkXVASYTDmQ

Yeah aussie rates for september firmed up check the 30 day aussie BBSR - ticked up implying less prob of a rate cut, though OIS data is more relevant but i dont have for aussie
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