GBPAUD is approaching the yearly MA, and also about to complete a downtrend signal in the daily chart. It's possible that shorts will be unwound soon, by year end, we might see a large short squeeze rally in this pair, and maybe even the opening of new institutional longs for the new quarter.
I'm really interested in entering with the tightest stop possible, so I'll be monitoring this for entry on the long side. If the yearly MA were to fail to contain the decline, then GBPAUD is in very bad shape and we can expect continuation to meet my weekly downtrend targets, around 1.98 or close. For the time being this looks like a large W bottom setting up, and has more positives than negatives for longs, so I'll attemp to ride the upcoming trending leg up.
Quite right... Got in long with a feeler trade today. Let's see what happens when next week starts. 2.085 weekly H&S neckline is the target for now. Should be a good level to go short from there again, unless GBPAUD moves higher and invalidates the H&S pattern completely. Although the Aussie is quite strong against the Dollar (has been for a while, so perhaps some correction could be due) and the GBP is quite weak in comparison. And if GBPAUD is looking to move up... I think GBPNZD might see a more faster move considering the Aussie is just about building up some momentum in AUDNZD.
Happy new year!!
IvanLabrie
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Hi, happy new year to you too!
I'm long GBPNZD with break even stop.
Entry was 2.15549, stop was 2.14937.
I don't feel good about shorting aud. Not anymore.
cryptopicasso
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Monitoring this pair as well
feel it could fall just below 2.0 before reversal
IvanLabrie
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It might keep falling...AUDUSD looks too strong and in a weekly uptrend, boosted by the chinese stock market rally.
2Greedy
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Yes i have 1.98 as my final TP as well...GA also just broke a huge monthly trendline but I do think your yearly MA will not break.
Also keep in mind we have to wait for a whole year to end to decide if the MA has broken or not, so any price below could just end up as a wick on the yearly.
IvanLabrie
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I don't think that's the case...the yearly MA is just one price, I don't wait one year for anything, unless I was using yearly candles.
Happy new year!!