Strong support near 1.92500 holding. We are favoring longs, if we can get a strong Earnings data/Hawkish Minutes to spark a rally.
Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) - Looking vs 1.8% or higher vs previous 1.7% Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) - Looking vs 2.1% or higher vs previous 2.2%
GBP sold off last week on comments from Governor Mark Carney - "Bank of England may raise rate rises later than expected". Minus the comment from Carney we saw last week the trade deficit decreased to £8.4 billion. With the spill over from Europe caused by QE - we could start seeing an uptick in Business investment and product/services data. A side note - We have elections in the UK putting a shadow on GBP - if the conservatives win there is a possibility of Great Britain leaving the European Union.
RBA meeting minutes summary :
Considered rate cut at meeting, decided to pause for more data Board members "Were of the view that a case to ease policy further might emerge" Saw benefit in "allowing some time" for economy to adjust to February rate cut Uncertain how borrowers, savers would behave in a world of very low rates Lower Australian dollar to help economy, but still above most estimates of fundamental value Board discussed risks in housing and commercial property markets House price growth strong in Sydney, solid in Melbourne, muted elsewhere Board noted recent cut in rates could, at the margin, boost the housing market Board also noted household leverage had not increased significantly Measures of household stress low, banks profitable and well capitalised RBA working with other regulators to contain risks that might come from housing Labour market likely to remain sluggish, spare capacity to last for some time
Gold bumped AUD temporarily, but I think it's still in a major downtrend, and the RBA wants the Aussie dollar cheap.
I'll probably get on board soon.
workingtraders
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I am hoping with USD rate hikes postponed. Traders will zero in on GBP - as the UK econ is not bad. GBP has been beaten down on pure speculation just as USD was pumped on speculation. Eurozone spilled over caused by QE has to trickle down into the data soon. Aud now more than ever will need cut rates as broad usd strength won't push the pair down anymore.
IvanLabrie
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Agreed.
workingtraders
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Keep me posted on when you do get on board. :) Good work on your charts.
Projected time and price targets.