550 PIP GBPAUD SHORT - My trade of the week!
Hello and welcome to my trade of the week!
I have been on holiday for the last week, hence the lack of daily updates but we are BACK this week and we have a beautiful setup to start with!
For those of you that haven't checked out my previous posts, please take a look - last week's trade of the week is running beautifully. If you haven't already, please like, subscribe, and comment.
Chart analysis:
- Expecting GBP weakness soon
- Expecting AUD strength soon - this MAY take a few days to kick in
- Approaching left shoulder of larger time frame head and shoulders pattern (this is a reliable reversal pattern) & larger timeframe Fibonacci level
- We are currently in a consolidating phase on the 1H time frame, meaning a breakout is expected very soon
- Excellent opportunity for shorts
- Two well established regional support levels for TP
News:
- This is a swing trade, meaning it is expected to run for at least several days, if not a couple of weeks. With this in mind, the most important news is in the timeframe surrounding initial entry.
HIGH IMPORTANCE:
- Bank of England interest rate decision 23rd Sep 1100 UTC. Historically this has been steady and low to try to reduce inflation. It is likely it will stay the same, but with the possibility of GBPUSD downsides coming, we may see change. In simple terms, the same or higher rate is better for our trade.
MEDIUM IMPORTANCE:
- Australia RBA meeting minutes Sep 21st 0130 UTC - this is also related to interest rate decisions, and the analysis is much as above.
- GBP Public sector net borrowing Sep 21st 0600 UTC - This is basically an indicator of the price gap between public sector costs and monies raised, often referred to as " The deficit". We are expecting this deficit to go up from £-10B to about -£15B. If the deficit is higher than before as expected, then this will weaken GBP and work in our favour.
- Multiple UK Market amendments and releases from Bank of England, Sep 23rd (most of the day). There is a tonne of news on the 23rd, mostly related to BoE monetary policy and quantitative easing (money printing to help the pound, balanced against inflation risks). This is hard to predict. My expectation is that we will see the trade moving to a point where we can move SL to BE before we reach this date.
Trade approach:
This is a setup that we can use to our advantage:
- We can place three trade setups. One is an entry expecting the price to retouch shoulder level before dropping, one is a sniper entry expecting the price to touch the top of the current consolidative channel before dropping, and one is a safer sell stop entry waiting for the channel and current main corrective trendline to be broken.
We can place all three!
Best case:
Price rises hit both sell limits, rejects from the shoulder, and immediate profits allow us to enter sell stop trade too.
Good case 1:
Price rises to the top of the current consolidative channel to hit the sell limit and then drops, picking up the sell stop on the way down.
Good case 2:
Price Drops without touching sell limits and hits our sell stop. We delete sell limit trades and make them safe after 30-40 pips.
Worst Case:
Price rises above the level of the shoulder, closing both sell limit trades and taking a small loss - allowing us to re-enter with double top next week.
A large part of trading is risk management - this isn't gambling, and our mindset should be clear. We plan our trades, and we trade our plans - if they do not work out, we walk away and reassess. If the pattern changes, we leave this alone. Don't give money back to the market.
I create these setups for you all for free, so please help to support me and the time it takes by liking and sharing my ideas on TradingView- it really goes a long way!
Good luck, trade safe.
DrBEar
I have been on holiday for the last week, hence the lack of daily updates but we are BACK this week and we have a beautiful setup to start with!
For those of you that haven't checked out my previous posts, please take a look - last week's trade of the week is running beautifully. If you haven't already, please like, subscribe, and comment.
Chart analysis:
- Expecting GBP weakness soon
- Expecting AUD strength soon - this MAY take a few days to kick in
- Approaching left shoulder of larger time frame head and shoulders pattern (this is a reliable reversal pattern) & larger timeframe Fibonacci level
- We are currently in a consolidating phase on the 1H time frame, meaning a breakout is expected very soon
- Excellent opportunity for shorts
- Two well established regional support levels for TP
News:
- This is a swing trade, meaning it is expected to run for at least several days, if not a couple of weeks. With this in mind, the most important news is in the timeframe surrounding initial entry.
HIGH IMPORTANCE:
- Bank of England interest rate decision 23rd Sep 1100 UTC. Historically this has been steady and low to try to reduce inflation. It is likely it will stay the same, but with the possibility of GBPUSD downsides coming, we may see change. In simple terms, the same or higher rate is better for our trade.
MEDIUM IMPORTANCE:
- Australia RBA meeting minutes Sep 21st 0130 UTC - this is also related to interest rate decisions, and the analysis is much as above.
- GBP Public sector net borrowing Sep 21st 0600 UTC - This is basically an indicator of the price gap between public sector costs and monies raised, often referred to as " The deficit". We are expecting this deficit to go up from £-10B to about -£15B. If the deficit is higher than before as expected, then this will weaken GBP and work in our favour.
- Multiple UK Market amendments and releases from Bank of England, Sep 23rd (most of the day). There is a tonne of news on the 23rd, mostly related to BoE monetary policy and quantitative easing (money printing to help the pound, balanced against inflation risks). This is hard to predict. My expectation is that we will see the trade moving to a point where we can move SL to BE before we reach this date.
Trade approach:
This is a setup that we can use to our advantage:
- We can place three trade setups. One is an entry expecting the price to retouch shoulder level before dropping, one is a sniper entry expecting the price to touch the top of the current consolidative channel before dropping, and one is a safer sell stop entry waiting for the channel and current main corrective trendline to be broken.
We can place all three!
Best case:
Price rises hit both sell limits, rejects from the shoulder, and immediate profits allow us to enter sell stop trade too.
Good case 1:
Price rises to the top of the current consolidative channel to hit the sell limit and then drops, picking up the sell stop on the way down.
Good case 2:
Price Drops without touching sell limits and hits our sell stop. We delete sell limit trades and make them safe after 30-40 pips.
Worst Case:
Price rises above the level of the shoulder, closing both sell limit trades and taking a small loss - allowing us to re-enter with double top next week.
A large part of trading is risk management - this isn't gambling, and our mindset should be clear. We plan our trades, and we trade our plans - if they do not work out, we walk away and reassess. If the pattern changes, we leave this alone. Don't give money back to the market.
I create these setups for you all for free, so please help to support me and the time it takes by liking and sharing my ideas on TradingView- it really goes a long way!
Good luck, trade safe.
DrBEar
Trade active:
PERFECT sniper!
This idea was provided for FREE - so far this trade has made me £3000 on my FTMO account.
Like my ideas? Follow, like, share, and comment - it really helps!
DB
This idea was provided for FREE - so far this trade has made me £3000 on my FTMO account.
Like my ideas? Follow, like, share, and comment - it really helps!
DB
