GBPAUD-We can still catch the big decline

FX:GBPAUD   British Pound/Australian Dollar
1183 16 16
Im closely looking this pair but i didnt open any trade due to market volatility last week.
First i want to remind that long term price is at a KEY AREA visible on W1 chart, with a potential 1500 pips decline from current price.

That setup is still valid. Today price is making a pullback to last highs and we can take advantage of that to entry short. I think the rally today is pure euphoria after yesterdays rate news for AUD.

Here on H4 chart i show a possible entry, a bearish bat near round numer 2.200

Best regards.

Hey buddy - thanks a lot for your posts, really enjoying them! This might be a silly question but what sort of timeline are we looking at for this trade to complete? would you still class it as a short term trade? Cheers
Hello, this setup is on H4 chart. The targets depends on each trader (short term or long term). If you can see on weekly chart this bearish bat is just the entry point for a long term move, so i suggest to open 2-3 postitions and have at least one long term target.
ahsanq FullTimeTrader
Great - thanks. I am rather new so only toying with the short term trades, but your ideas make a lot of sense, so I might as well grow up and be patient! By multiple positions you mean on the same pair or just in general?

Taking a bit of a beating on the earlier EURAUD position though, and hoping it calms down a bit :$
Losing is part of the game. We can lose 50% of trades and still be profitable if we have a good R/R ratio. Im talking about multiple positions here on this setup. Regards.
ahsanq FullTimeTrader
Absolutely, thanks for your help and support! Cheers.
FullTimeTrader, please click on the chart I just posted. It has my question there. I thought it would post the description here if I added the chart. Sorry, first time posting a chart on someone else's chart.
Could be a nice point to get in, good idea!
On the monthly chart the recent spike was a perfect 50% retracement of the september 2001 to March 2013 down movement and perfectly aligns with the 61.8% level you mention!
Because of the fact that those levels can only be reached by adding that spike to the equation I am however still a bit doubtfull. Momentum indicators are not yet fully conclusive except for the fact that we are quite overbought.
The 50 and 61.8 levels are really good levels to begin drawing all sorts of patterns starting with X @ either the sep. 2001 high or the oct. 2008 spike! I drew only one possibility on my chart below, so the next move indeed could be massive!!

This could be an alternative and counter-indication for your idea though...:
Very interesting long term charts. The 0.50 fib retracement is very important, its the "fair price" so we could expect some reaction near actual levels. Im a fan of harmonics also but this year im testing to combine it with elliott waves to chose the more probable pattern that aligns with the my prefered EW count. This way im "filtering" some patterns. Lets see what happens, but im 80% sure price will fall but the tricky thing is to find an entry point. Regards.
Just got filled on my sell orders @ 2.2000! Some rejection, pair is down 20-30 pips down now but too soon to tell ofcourse...
In case this doesn't work out I have a new sell order ready for 2.2490... If that fails too I might be considering longs to fill the bat I posted in my last chart.
Anyone else in this trade?
Good luck to all!
+1 Reply
Im also in, the bat was triggered, so lets wait patient next days, happy weekend.
+1 Reply
KVE FullTimeTrader
Nice, good luck and good weekend to you too!!
Hello Guys!! Since it looks like several of you have entered this trade, do you think that AUDUSD is going to turn to the long side? theses pairs seem to run opposite if each other. Thank you so much, I really enjoy all of the analysis from everyone!!!!
Hello, you are right!! this two pairs are negative correlated. I also expect some CORRECTION for the AUDUSD and the continue the long term direction. Same idea here. Regards.
Heelfan23 PRO FullTimeTrader
Thank you! I was a little concerned with AUDUSD breaking such a big support level, that it might continue with the downfall. I was hoping .70000 was going to hold.
Adding to my large timeframe bearish bat idea: bearish 3 drives ending near the bat's completion! It's all very textbook and possibly wishful thinking but it helps to give direction, clues will have to come from PA itself!
GBP/AUD LONGTERM: Bearish 3 drives ending near bat completion?!

I'm now set to try and catch the possible correction which could start in the coming weeks/months.
I will try to leave a small part of my current short open to go as far as it goes!

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