First i want to remind that long term price is at a KEY AREA visible on W1 chart, with a potential 1500 pips decline from current price.
That setup is still valid. Today price is making a pullback to last highs and we can take advantage of that to entry short. I think the rally today is pure euphoria after yesterdays rate news for AUD.
Here on H4 chart i show a possible entry, a near round numer 2.200
Taking a bit of a beating on the earlier EURAUD position though, and hoping it calms down a bit :$
On the monthly chart the recent spike was a perfect 50% retracement of the september 2001 to March 2013 down movement and perfectly aligns with the 61.8% level you mention!
Because of the fact that those levels can only be reached by adding that spike to the equation I am however still a bit doubtfull. Momentum indicators are not yet fully conclusive except for the fact that we are quite overbought.
The 50 and 61.8 levels are really good levels to begin drawing all sorts of patterns starting with X @ either the sep. 2001 high or the oct. 2008 spike! I drew only one possibility on my chart below, so the next move indeed could be massive!!
This could be an alternative and counter-indication for your idea though...:
In case this doesn't work out I have a new sell order ready for 2.2490... If that fails too I might be considering longs to fill the bat I posted in my last chart.
Anyone else in this trade?
Good luck to all!
I'm now set to try and catch the possible correction which could start in the coming weeks/months.
I will try to leave a small part of my current short open to go as far as it goes!