GBPAUD: Coiling for an explosive move down again

FX:GBPAUD   British Pound / Australian Dollar
GBPAUD             is about to trigger a downtrend signal in the daily chart , and has an active weekly downtrend, with 5 weeks more of proyected downside. The weekly target sits at 1.42355 as indicated on chart. If this pair continues to trend, we will most likely hit it, and then stall to form a consolidation before even more downside.

Right now, we can either sell if we get overbought readings and/or a test of the 'Flash crash key level' in red above, or if there's a breakout to the downside. To enter the trades, if we get a test of resistance, we can risk 1 ATR above the key level, but if we also hit overbought readings in CCI , we can take a trade based on one of Tim West's proprietary tools, the RgMov indicator, but I won't explain the entry parameters here since the price action needs to materialize before I confirm it.

The breakout trade will form a 'Time at mode' downtrend signal in the daily timeframe if it happens, which indicates a drop to approximately 1.51220 within 11-12 bars, but, it also hasn't confirmed yet so I can't specify the ETA and give a signal for entry that won't need daily revision, hence I'm sharing it on a daily basis with my trading signals clients only. A good substitute for this more specific and tighter stop entry, is to simply short a breakout of the last 3 days' range, risking a rally above 1.6025.
Good luck, and please, don't go long GBP in any shape or form, the fundamental risks are large.


Ivan Labrie.
Trade active: I think we can short a half position here, stops at 1.6082, last: 1.59635
Comment: You may now short here, risking a move above Friday's high or Friday's close.
IvanLabrie The_Mockingbird
I'm long AUDUSD, break even stop, from 0.7590.
But I won't short GBP pairs until GBPUSD slows down in this rally. Give it a day or two, it'll probably drop after Nov 7.
Data coming out of UK is too good for anymore downside currently...we need data to turn down for more downside my opinion...GBP pairs are more likely to move up than down with current data out of UK.
IvanLabrie RobbyWestHouston
I disagree, what data?
This is only getting more volatile, I think we can easily fade GBP against all currency pairs that either don't move, or move up.
MrVolcano RobbyWestHouston
Speculation that the governor of the Bank of England may resign would be enough.
IvanLabrie MrVolcano
Yes, GBP is not strong at all, technically nor fundamentally, due to volatility inherent to the Brexit process and political situation.
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