AdrianRaymondFX

Bullish trade on GBPCAD for 2015

Long
FX:GBPCAD   British Pound / Canadian Dollar
The GBPCAD cross looks like it's been consolidating with a flag-like movement since the start of 2014, and this may lead to an eventual bullish leg to fresh multi-annual highs in 2015. Fundamentally, I like being short the Loonie dollar as crude oil's plunge this year should lead to disinflationary pressures in Canada with a possibility of seeing the Bank of Canada revise it's inflation forecasts downward for the next year or so. Meanwhile, while the BoE maintains a cautious approach with regards to a rate hike, that lead to the bullish GBPCAD breakout in 2013, I believe that the British Pound will remain stable next year. This will likely lead to further gains for the GBPCAD cross, and I will be looking for a monthly break above 1.84 to start anticipating an acceleration to fresh highs above 1.8670 (Feb. 2014 highs). If this happens, I think we could see 1.92/93 CAD hit within a couple of months following a break above 1.8670.