4xForecaster

$GBP v $CHF Mulls Limited Decline Pending Geo | #BOE #SNB #forex

FX:GBPCHF   British Pound/Swiss Franc
1306 7 27
a year ago
Friends,


$GBP vs. $CHG offers a high-probability of a geometric             completion following the price pathway speculated in the chart (dashed orange pathway):


snapshot


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

Predictive/Forecasting Model defined the following two qualitative targets:

1 - TG-Hi = 1.54017 - 09 AUG 2015

and

2 - TG-Hix = 1.57575 - 09 AUG 2015


ELLIOTT WAVE:

Current price action may be completing a 5th wave of a larger bullish impulse, with 5th wave pending a higher structural level in the vicinity of the targets defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model. Note how well the EW's Rule of Alternations worked here between a curt 2nd wave and a protracted 4th wave.


MARKET GEOMETRIES:

Two possible market geometric             development rest on the Wolfe Wave pattern and the Geo             , albeit Point-4 remains speculative and ill-defined at this early stage. As indicated above, a price decline is expected, with support corresponding to an internal structural (i.e.: internal to the highlighted geometry).

A Wolfe Wave would seek completion at or near the first Model's forecast targetat 1.54017, whereas a Geo             would allow for a temporary excursion to the topside of the WW, ideally along the 3-5' Line, convergent to the Model's highest defined target at 1.57575.


OVERALL:

In the background, an interim decline to carve out a higher low is expected, defining Point-4 on the way to a geometric             completion of WW or Geo             . At the foreground, the Predictive/Forecasting Model defined loftier targets than Wolfe Wave, but in line with a Geo             completion.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----


.
a year ago
Comment: 29 OCT 2015 - Moving "Post Comment" content into "Update Status" to keep discussion and trade development separate.

=================================
11 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPCHF hits target at 1.54017; Meets resistance; Background geometry remains unfolds:

snapshot


$GBP $CHF #BOE #SNB #franc
---------
David Alcindor


24 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPCHF hit higher-prob. 1.47093 target; Reversal to 1.57575 target now more probable:

snapshot


$GBP $CHF #BOE #SNB #forex
----------

David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 29 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

@iefan - I saw your query in the ATHENA room ... Here is what I am looking at for now:

snapshot


Basically, price failed to deliver a simple ZZ geometry to a lower level (orange line). Although the ZZ geometry occurred, it since carved a higher-high.

While this provides the outline for a potential ATHENA application in the diverging lines, I am not certain yet that it would occur.

In any case, YES: I do trade the last two legs of the ATHENA (4-5 Leg, then Point-5 reaction).

Now, looking at other $GBP charts, one in particular caught my attention, suggesting that it could bring $GBP down, and thus by correlation, could bring this one down to an undershoot of the geometry in $GBPCHF as well (pink arrow down in $GBPCHF) - I am referring to $GBPAUD where a 5' is nearing completion.

Per Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, we are thus looking at this potential move:
snapshot


Hence, the correlation could carry through to the $GBPCHF and bring price to completion of its internal geometry (black).

Best,

David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 02 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price ignores geometry; Continues to rally to Model's TG-Hix target:

snapshot


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Prior chart suggested possibility of a limited decline t 1.43051. Instead, consider this shallower interim option, whereby price would complete a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry to rest at the value illustrated in the chart ... Bullish target remain intact and in force:

snapshot


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 12 NOV 2015 - Chart Update:

Bullish target remains intact and in force. However, expect an interim respite from bulls, seeking repose at 1.49095 before recommencing a final advance to Qual-Target TG-Hix = 1.57575, defined this past August 09th, 2015::

snapshot


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 17 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to rally ... Did not retrace as low as expected (1.49095) ... Forecast remains intact and in force:

snapshot


David Alcindor
11 months ago
Comment: 08 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Here is an example where the Wolfe Wave would have been much more precise a method than the Geo's, considering that the off-set at Point-1 in the Geo caused a miss on Point-5:
snapshot


Based on the Wolfe Wave, expect price to seek validation along the 1-4 Line.

David Alcindor
11 months ago
Comment: ADDENDUM:

Now, also beware of this potential larger geometry, since the Model's bullish target remains unanswered:
snapshot


David Alcindor
9 months ago
Comment: 09 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Target a 1.57575 remains intact and in force. Price remains close to dashed arrow forecast - Note that I have expanded the geometry (PINK), and added an internal Geo (BLACK), suggesting a probable or near completion of the 5-plot cycle - This suggests an imminent rallying:
snapshot


Aside from these geometries, Model remains BULLISH, eyeing the original 1.57575 target.

Best,

David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
11 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPCHF hits target at 1.54017; Meets resistance; Background geometry remains unfolds:

snapshot


$GBP $CHF #BOE #SNB #franc
---------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
24 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPCHF hit higher-prob. 1.47093 target; Reversal to 1.57575 target now more probable:

snapshot


$GBP $CHF #BOE #SNB #forex
----------


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
@iefan - Note that the pattern in pink would represent a One2One completion (pink arrows):

snapshot


A pretty forceful reaction typically ensues from this pattern.

David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Sorry, I meant this chart:

snapshot


David
+3 Reply
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Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: www.TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster
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Best,


David Alcindor


PS: If you like certain charts, ideas, concepts, then given it a thumbs-up so I know which one to delve into and which one to lay off of. And, if you think these are ideas that can advance the edification of a peer, then I thank you ahead for sharing - I don't make money via memberships. Just trading my own ideas and free-sharing ... Just a better credential, if I may say so.

Cheers to your profitable trades,

David
+2 Reply
a1ibaba 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thank you for your analysis! Now retest 1.49095?
Reply
ewpnx1 PRO
9 months ago
Hi David, Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this market. I was wandering if you take trades based on these ideas? and if you do, how do you define your entries and stop loss? It would be really beneficial for me to understand as I read more and more of your posts.
Thanks
Reply
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