I was short earlier on this pair based on an idea from another trader but I've closed the trade since I didn't entirely feel good about it...
As I see it now we don't have any clear signs of a reversal of the current uptrend yet. An ascending triangle might be in play also. Several scenario's are possible: we could break the lower timeframe trendline and go towards the higher timeframe trendline or we could go further up through the ascending triangle top boundary towards completion of a possible bat pattern and then down...
I'm currently favouring a further move up to complete one of the possible bats drawn on chart. Especially since I don't have confirmation yet on a possible reversal from the oscillators. I would really like to see some good divergence before shorting this pair.
I will adjust my targets and possibly also my SL depending on the level where the possible reversal occurs. I could miss the initial entry if it turns out that PA reverses on completion of the smallest bat, but since my SL would preferably be above the highest high I'd rather miss the entry then to get a less favourable R/R ratio. There will always be another chance to get in on a trade.
There are alot of trendlines on the chart so don't mind them too much, they're just there for reference and to possibly adjust my gameplan depending on the reaction of PA around them. The red arrows are potential alternative scenarios.
Comments
hatimtai
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Any update
KVE
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We need to wait now, anything could happen tomorrow.
Cheers
hatimtai
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Really want to short this any update
KVE
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PA at the 1.49 level might give us clues about the direction now.
KVE
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That's a possibility, thanks for sharing!
aturn
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I think 1.51 is very likely the top of current retracement. I'm going to short it when the price go back to 1.5020 area, and then maybe a very long run ahead to the 1.47.
KVE
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I didn't see this earlier but it seems we broke out of the ascending triangle to the downside last friday already!!
I am looking at this now but I'm a bit worried though that we might see some more sideways movement between 1.4920 and 1.5100...
I think Iwill wait for confirmation and a confirmed break below 1.4900 to short this pair.
If we go back up I will short from 1.5080 with SL around 1.5120 or so.