GBPEUR at critical position

FX_IDC:GBPEUR   British Pound / Euro
I tend to watch trends. Higher time frames show the bigger picture and avoid much of the noise within 30 min and 1H time frames. GBPEUR or EURGBP is at a crucial stage.

The following on GBPEUR taken altogether may be indicative (not predictive):
1. Very low cross of Aroons on 1D
2. Vstops (20,4) signalling change of trend on 1D and 4H.
3. Price favouring to fight against level of resistance on 4H.

This idea is not prescriptive about what traders should do, or how they might take a position. The markets could well decide on going south.

There is more trouble in the Eurozone ahead as Italy and seven other eurozone countries risk breaking the bloc's rules (GIYF). To me, this means that confidence in the EURO may continue to fall. If demand for EURO falls, this would mean a potential lift for GBPEUR , if Sterling remains static.

However, the Sterling is at an all time low in it's history - and the UK economy looks overall on a good footing for recovery post-Brexit. I'm expecting Sterling to rise. If Sterling rises and EURO falls in demand, then GBPEUR as a pair should rise. I warn again that these are speculative statements - not predictions. I may be entirely wrong about my assessments. In trading we contract to be wrong - but we contract to limit our losses and maximise our gains, by whatever method.

Disclaimer: Dance with danger but at your own risk. As Akil Stokes once said, "You're to blame" LOL. In other words, take positions if you wish but your losses are your own. I make no assurances that this analysis will lead to a gain. I accept that 80% of my analyses will be wrong and therefore an 80% loss rate. You have been warned/told.
Comment: Thar she blows! LOL (this does not mean she'll blow forever or that this is a time to go long).
Comment: Still north!
Comment: Long positions closed. There is now greater potential for a short as the upward trajectory may well come into heavy bearish pressure from the weekly and daily time frames. JTBC - I cannot see the future. I could well be proved wrong by the markets.

FED balance sheet 42% of GDP @ 2020-01-26. Does money have value anymore? [Different perspective on the virus ]