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melvinljw
Jul 16, 2017 4:34 AM

Short GBPJPY, Elliot Wave. Expecting wave V to begin soon  Short

British Pound/Japanese YenFXCM

Description

I have previously published a short GBPJPY. This is a more detailed count.

Currently we are in complex wave 4 (Corrective). This corrective wave 4 is a complex triangle, unfolding in 5 waves. Current up move back to barrier 148 area is labelled as wave E, which is the end of the triangle.

Expecting bearish impulsive wave V to start soon. It should decline in a 5 wave impulsive fashion that I predict.

Trade idea : Short at 148 area
Stop Loss : 149.2 (This pair is very volatile, to prevent spikes that will take down your SL)
TP : Open, If proven right, will add more short positions as the pair move downwards.

Comment

Trade is active at 147.5

Comment



Small Time Frame. Which trigger my entry.

Looks like Impulsive wave 1 end at 145.25 (From 147.75)
Corrective wave 2 is current forming a double 3 (ABC), zig zack and expanding flat. (Labelled on my graph as WXY)
By Elliot's principle that wave 2 cannot correct more than 100% of wave 1, trade invalidated if it closes above 147.75.
Expecting minor impulsive wave 3 to begin soon

(Note that this is happening inside wave 1 bearish impulsive wave of the bigger picture)

Comment

Looking more like an expanding wedge now

Comment

Limit order sell placed at 146.5. (adding on new positions if wedge break)

Comment

Limit order sell triggered. Stacking 1 more position.

Trade SL shifted to entry.

Comment

Inability to clear 146.3 - 146.4 is giving me reason for pause, as what could appear to be a wave E - 4th wave, corrective flat.

If so, 148 could likely be on the cards if this swing backs up for the final 5th wave

Comment

I'm still watching to see the price action around 145.3 - 145.4. (Likely it will test 1 more time)

Comment

Looks like it broke convincingly.

First Target 138.7 Wave V (1)

Comment

Trade closed at 145.95
Comments
RaffaeleMagri
What if the current DE segment is in fact the 1st wave of a bullish Elliot wave?...could we see a change of direction? Is this a possibility? I am new to this, just learning. Can someone advise, thanks.
melvinljw
Pretty unlikely. If any, the 1st wave could possible be the AB segment. In that case we should see a retracement to 142 area before breaking above 148 @RaffaeleMagri,
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