It´s retracement time. I think price will retrace till the trend line conecting the previous daily highs, which coincide with support zone at 132,20. After that, price will rise again. Pound is too low.
Comments
Pivot_Panther
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Hi Cambista. You're going to think I am picking on you. I am not. My previous response on my speculation that price would rise to 137ish, as you know, was correct. Again, looking at your 60 min chart, this still displays higher highs and higher lows. Actually your chart is what allowed me to open up my mind and see this. My theory is that this dip was just a relief sell off. I believe that price is yet to go higher, perhaps 140 on this next leg. From there, then I'd really consider a big short. My two cents, just trying to save you some $ and acceptance of my discussion. GL trading.
Cambista
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Hi @Pivot_Panther. Your comments are wellcomed. I am just trying to guess, like everyone else. Maybe you are right. Nobody knows what price will do. And there isn´t any special new about GB, so....we will see.
But you must agree with me that a price decrease of 200 pips in 3 hours is suspicious. In addition, we have a divergence on MACD. So..again...I hope you are wrong...;-)
Pivot_Panther
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@Cambista, Hey Cambista. Thank you for keeping an open line of communication. I tend to help folks out. Your charts are set up nicely, so they're easy to assess. I used to belong a forum, called the LAR, sponsored by Oanda and led by Dale Pinkerton. In there was where I gave my advice and trades with GY. I've been trading it now for about 8 years. It's really the only currency that I do trade. I tend to trade about 90% technical and am aware of news events. I ensure that my charts are lined up in the direction I believe the news event could catapult price. The day before the Presidential election, I predicted to my friends that Trump was going to win. The charts had set themselves up for the fall. I didn't predict the subsequent rise though. The fall was good enough for me, in a days work.
Your divergence that you refer to is on the 60 min chart, but not on your daily. They are not aligned. However, as I said before, that 1 hour chart says to me that we are in beginning of a new uptrend. The drop today had to happen. We've gone too high without a significant pause. It was taking pressure off. I am choosing 140 because its a big round number and GY likes those. Almost natural support and resistance areas. The 200 EMA on the Daily chart is still looming way up there, even above 140. Price naturally gravitates to this EMA, very important to keep on all of your charts. Price has also broken thru Ichimoku cloud which is bullish. Don't want to overwhelm you with all that I consider for trading, but I hope some of this may assist. GL!
Cambista
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@Pivot_Panther, Many thanks for your advices. It seems you are a lot more experienced than me. I´ve been trading for one year only. And you know this pair very well.
I have the EMA200 in all my charts and I understand its importance. It seems dificult to me that price goes straight to the EMA200 on the daily chart...but we never know.
About the MACD divergence, I spot it on 4H chart, but it is on 1H chart as well.
Anyway, your comments leave me in doubt and therefore I will take measures to protect me. Thank you again for your advice.
Pivot_Panther
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@Cambista, Hi Cambista. Well, price didn't make it to 140, but it showed fatigue at the 138ish. I took a short at 138.63. Based on the long time that the oscillators stood in the overbought zones, I will assume that we'll get a nice short. So, I am picking 132ish for now. Good luck trading. PP
Cambista
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Hi @Pivot_Panther, you were absolutely right. Congratulations. I also made some profit on a hedging position that I allready closed at 138,60 and now I have my Sell position waiting for profit. Do you think it will make another round up after touching the 1H trend line?
Pivot_Panther
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@Cambista, Good morning Cambista. Sorry for late reply, I think I had already gone to bed. Anyway, congrats on securing your profits and collaborating with me. Glad you got your sell on. So, in answering your question.....its difficult. I thought that this would be an excellent area for a nice retracement. However, with oil jumping, the stock market hitting new highs, tells me there still is some juice in this tank. I have moved my stops to BE, keeping in mind that this could move higher. If not, then I risk nothing and hopefully, something will trigger this move for a continued drop and the 132ish area. Hope that helps. Keep up the good work. Cheers!