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# \$GBP v \$JPY: Third Lesson, Same Ideas | #BOE #BOJ #sterling #yen

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound/Japanese Yen
1742 56
Friends,

As we are hitting concepts of Wolfe Wave and Geo             hard tonight, here is another opportunity to witness a probable geometric             cycle completion of the WW/Geo:

We already covered significant ideas and topics through \$USDTRY and \$NZDJPY charts, so here there are for your review, with a step-by-step review of how I construct the Geo             ... These charts are live and still going on as I write this (click on chart for lessons/review of concepts):

1 - \$USDTRY:

and

2 - \$NZDJPY:

I hope you will start finding the Wolfe Wave and the Geo             easier breeds of market geometries to trade. I will continue to offer information and relevant details as this and other referenced charts develop.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting

-----
@4xForecaster

David Alcindor
-----

.
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
Thanks
Thank you !
26 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

David
26 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Possible pathway, taking Geo's Off-Set Rule into consideration:

David
4xForecaster
Thanks david,
Perfect chart but gbpjpy long term uptrend.
26 AUG 2015 - Chart Update;

----------
\$GBPJPY hit both #fibonacci targets; Mulls last and third:

\$GBP \$JPY #BOE #BOJ #sterling #yen \$USD #forex

David Alcindor
26 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

In case you are wondering how to spell "Long Entry" in simple green, square geometry:

Subsequent price action submits itself to Geo's Off-Set Rule.

David Alcindor
Third lesson? Where are the first two?
Yahia.Awes
#1 - \$NZD v. \$JPY: "\$NZD v. \$JPY - This WW Might Rest At #fibonacci Before Rallying"
-

#2 - \$USD v. \$TRY - "\$USD v. \$TRY - Another Step-By-Step | #turkish #lira #forex"
-

David
4xForecaster
(click on charts to link up to the step-by-step methodology - David)
4xForecaster
I've been watching these, very nice results David, great stuff.
amazing stuff David, thanks !
Spot on, nicely done! Keep it up!
26 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

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\$GBPJPY ralliy consistent w/ forecast; Now negotiates Pt-1 level; Retracmt threat limited to 184.5; Target intact

----------

David Alcindor
27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

184.653 remains a possible visitation level as price bends under bears. Still, this is a net-bullish chart overall:

David
4xForecaster
If it fills my short I'll be thrilled.
Another fine example of this geo strategy. Always interesting to see its application, thanks again David.
4xForecaster
Hi David, I am following you since i started trading. I lost a chance to go out on this as I am holding a SHORT since 184.940, wanted to ask, if i should hold on it and go long another trade to compensate for the loss and wait for it to come down. do you see it coming down soon? please advise. Your quick response is highly appreciated, since market is going to open in an hour or so? Best
shekhu27
The best lesson to take is don't ever risk more than your tolerance.
4xForecaster
1 Sep 2015

GBPJPY

Hi David

Where would have been a sensible place to put ones SL. I placed mine at FE 1.618 of the 1 - 2 Leg. Any suggestions would be much appreciated. Kind regards
iefan
Hello @iefan - In the trade, I placed mine tightly under 186.50, as price had carved a higher low.

If you look at the larger structure from which this impulsive move originates, then expect the scale I used to the left of your chart to extend downward, as the current bearish impulse will require 2 more waves until completion, namely a COR wave-4 and a terminal IMP wave-5 in order to complete the current decline.

In the larger system, the entire chart within the M15 frame corresponds to a corrective rally of a 4th wave ... I had expected a EW's 5th wave truncation to terminate no lower than the 0.886 level, at the very least, a level that is now being challenged.

D.
4xForecaster
Here is the big picture in terms of the EW development, and the really big picture in terms of possible Geo/WW development:

David
4xForecaster
Thank you David, much appreciated!
2 Sep 2015

\$GBPJPY

Hi David

Is it likely that this slightly larger WW/Geo is controlling price and that a rally is probable at this point? Thank you Iefan
iefan
@iefan - The infuencer I am keeping an eye on is this DAILY geometry:

If you look at configuration of the RSI, it is building the same high-palteau-dip-spike-dip ... plateau (?) as it did in the 1-2 Leg construction:

Also, this is echoed by this 5-point tempo in price action between the 1-2 Leg and the 3-4 Leg:

The nadir in Point-4 is still valid as ling as this 1-3 Line projection off of Point-2 remains untouched ("Tolerance Line")::

Also, looking ahead, this overhead pivot will represent a major net-directional bias reversal once transgressed:

Finally, heed these parellels to the 1-4 Line, as they have imposed validations of their own, not only as resistance when price was still underneath, but also as transitional points between bars, when atop::

David
4xForecaster
6 Sep 2015

GBPJPY

Thank you for the charts above David, A host of new ideas which I'll need to look into, very interesting... thank you. I see you are expecting a limited rally in GBPUSD, would such a rally make a similar rally in GBPJPY and GBPCAD more probable.....or is there little correlation between these pairs? Thank you
iefan
iefan
Hello @iefan - Sorry I missed your query from 3 days ago - There are TWO Geos, one into the other, which can be outlined, but at this point, they both hit their respective 1-4 Line and been falling from it.

David
4xForecaster
Thank you David, no problem at all....would really appreciate your help on a SL question I have posted on the EURNZD pair. Thanks a million. Iefan
08 SEP 2018 - Chart Update:

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Absolutely awesome!!! Both TP1 and TP 2 hit off of a reverse head shoulder setup on hourly!!! Now possible head and shoulder on 4 hr? Where do you project it to go from here?
Heelfan23
can you post the chart with the 1h reverse H&S i do see the possible 4h H&S but i cant find that 1h
09 SEP 2015 - Char Update:

Note that the larger timeframe remains bullish, but looking into the internals of the larger system, the H1 suggests the following potential pathway:

David Alcindor

\$GBPJPY remains adherent to forecast pathway; Hit bullish target; Bears gaining strength:

\$GBP \$JPY #BOE #BOJ

David Alcindor
10 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

Watch for this potential encompassing geometries:

David Alcindor
4xForecaster

Watch for this other inclusion as well (pink), likely to throw an ectopic Point-5 as well.:

David Alcindor

\$GBPJPY builds 1st bearish impulse; Expect 2-4 Line impedance, limited corrective rally before decline:

\$GBP \$JPY

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Thank you David, superb forecasting....just curious if this pair is correlated with \$GBPCHF and if a similar decline is expected in that pair before a further rally to new highs?
iefan
Hello @iefan - These two (GBPCHF/GBPJPY) hold a wide range of correlation, as follows:

1 - HOURLY: 85.6%

2 - DAILY: 62.7%

3 - WEEKLY: 15.6%

As you already know, the correlation is an important element in the trade, since the trader should seek to minimize iterative positions, and thus over-exposure to the same currency flux. However, I like to look at the correlation as valuable pieces of information IF and only IF there is a tight correlation (near or above 80) across at least the DAILY and WEEKLY, as this would attest to a significant consistency on a historical basis.

In this case, there is TOO wide a variation for me to seek benefiting from this, hence I will be careful to study each of the pairs, since they really do NOT work in unison - I believe that short-term correlations of greater than 80 have more to do with the inherent predominance of one currency across the board, as fundamental issues are being settled. Hence, M5, M15, and H1 are likely to carry a high correlation value, but that is likely to do with a forceful move on one currency "lifting all other boats" during a short tempest.

If the correlation does not hold over days, or better: weeks, then they are good to trade as individual tools, in my opinion, as opposed to duplicate tools, had they remained highly correlated in higher frames.

Here is where I get the data for this question:
- https://www.mataf.net/en/tools/01-01-correlation

Best,

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Great information, thank you for the prompt reply, have a great day. Iefan
iefan
BTW - The larger Geo (in ghosted larger-font numbers) is likely to absorb any other internal geometry. For instance, the "squared-in 1" level which validated the 2-4 Line is likely to throw another leg UP-wards, whereby Point-5 of that larger system would be defined.

Best to check your Elliott Wave's Rule of Alternations and see that this more complex correction in the 4th wave balances out quite well with a simpler Wave-2 .

Hence, IF this is true that a more complex COR occurs, this would make the highlighted level (pink UP-arrow) a RUNNING FLAT as a larger correction than anticipated, consistent with EW's Alternation Rule.

Make sure too remain aware of these subtleties.

Best,

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Addendum - Here is what I am talking about ... And this comes as a rather HIGH probability too:

So, the prudent thing to do, going into this week-end is to stay on the sideline, drink a good cup of coffee and review the PDF on Elliott Wave from the http://www.ElliottWave.com site, IMHO.

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
I'll take that route...flat for now, overall. Good coffee and rest surely helps :)
Have a nice weekend David.
14 SEP 2015 - Chart update:

David Alcindor
14 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

Reaching a "transmural" level - Expect temporizing correction at this particular level.:

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Hi David, what exactly do you mean by "transmural level"? Thanks. I'm not following what direction you anticipate a correction going...
buckleforex
Hello @buckleforex - The "transmural" is simply the image that the a swing projects, as price BEFORE it meets resistance, then once moving on the "trans" or "across" of the "mural" or "wall" of the wall, will react inversely, meeting support, as in this example:

This is a very simple method of anticipation, aiding the shorter-frame trader to visualize what is likely to happen to price.

A similar event happen across the prior "wall" as well:

Is this making sense?

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
possible play
4xForecaster
hi david target is nearly reached can take long position? or wait for 182.00.

Thanks , Siva
20 SEP 2015 - H1 Chart Update:

David Alcindor
4xForecaster

Also beware of this potential 5- excursion:

David
4xForecaster

David Alcindor
25 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Trade Note / Tech-Note:

Bonjour!

My entry at the following trigger (TG-Lo):

SL at TL. Since this is a slope, the SL is a dynamic point that will keep on rising as chart moves to the right.
Target is the 1-3 Line.

Not a trade recommendation; Just sharing how I view and trade things.

David
4xForecaster
trés bien, merci, et vous ?.. I'm afraid my French lessons in school taught me just about enough to say hello and look at the dog! Anyway I digress....question time as usual! What significance does 188.267 hold David....if price BACA 188.267 does that imply a higher probability of price reaching the 1 - 3 Line or how do you use this landmark in the chart in your trading. Thank you as always. Kind regards Iefan
25 SEP 2015 - Target ("TG-Lo") Hit / Tech-Note:

Target "TG-LO" which I just posted with the parameters for invalidation (the 2 pink arrows in the chart just posted a few minutes ago, now the single GREY arrow in the following chart) just got hit.

I have also outlined the TL of the Wolfe Wave, which would set any SL at a lower level. If the Geo's TL is breached, I would lose my long position towards Point-5 (i.e.: along the 1-3 Line), but I would not re-enter immediately. Instead, I would recommend letting the Elliott Wave play itself out at one lesser degree.

The Predictive/Forecasting Model produced this TG-Lo, but TG-Lox would be a lower target of lesser probability, whereas the WL would demand of me to shift to a higher timeframe - These are the contingent conditions I am left to work with as I took this long position.

David Alcindor
25 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

Nice, clean retraction of price off of TL; Long position remains intact. We will continue to follow this trade with M15/H1 calibration when necessary. Goal here is purely based on the Geo, which is to reach the 1-3 Line. The Predictive/Forecasting Model might also help provide a more precise target as well, but again, the 1-3 Line is really what matters at this early development (Point-4 completion, looking to close the 5-plot cycle) of the Geo.

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
David....Would loooove to get an update on this pair using your analysis please. Much appreciated!
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