From a monthly perspective, looking down at this market, we've seen a huge reversal come in to play since February of this year. A huge took out nearly 4 and a half months of prior price action. We closed very firmly below our EMAs which resulted in a monthly crossover the downside. Price naturally retested 150.00 as resistance and formed a . This was then followed by another taking out March/April price action. I believe price is now testing our EMAs as well as 147.50 before declining further.
We can clearly see that after our 3rd bounce of the weekly TL, price formed a lower high with and a candle leading us all the way down to where we are now. A solid break of this weekly TL has caused a breakout - retest - continuation scenario to potentially occur. We have seen shooting stars across the last 2 weeks which have rejected 147.50 as resistance as well as our 8 .
The daily TF has been producing lower highs and lower lows supporting out bias. We have bounced off the daily TL for the 3rd time which is an area confluent with weekly resistance of 147.50. We can see price rebounding back below our EMAs with the completion of an patten.
As this pair moves in large swings, it has pulled back into our preferred fib region rejecting this area very nicely. We can see lower swing highs and lows giving us alignment with the higher TFs. Our CTL has been broken and our EMAs are downward facing. The first stop is 145.00 with a possibility to decline further to 142.50 and beyond.