TimStuyts

GBPJPY perferct trade scenario, both long & short

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound/Japanese Yen
567 14 19
8 months ago
In the beginning of next week I will be looking for a last leg higher for wave 5 of wave A in red. Once that is in place I will be looking for a 3 wave pattern consolidation to retrace at least 38.2% of the whole length of wave A (top has yet to be determined).
Once that consolidation is in place I will be looking for a wave C higher towards 173 and maybe even higher (this wave count can change in an impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 count).
So first things first, in the beginning of the week I like a last buy continuation trade based on lower time frames (<1hr) towards 164.8-165 followed by a correction for wave B. (wait for first impulse lower (a), wait for consolidation (b) and sell wave C (sell continuation) of wave B in red)

updates will follow.

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8 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
8 months ago
Trade active: I will update as soon as I see a clear impulse and consolidation. I personally got triggered long at 159.44 because I traded the news volatility by means of a pending order. That stop is at break even and if this is a start of the next leg higher I consider this trade a 'bonus'. However the high probability trade will present itself once we see this price action continue and consolidate. I will update this trade if that happens. If we move lower I'm protected with my stop loss and wait for the next opportunity.
8 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
8 months ago
Comment: GBPJPY correction is not over yet and I believe we might test 156 before we see a reversal. I projected my wave count for buy trade opportunities. Updates will follow once GBPJPY reaches my reversal zone for a buy opportunity towards 173.

snapshot
8 months ago
Comment:
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SamehAnwer
8 months ago
why especially 38.2% of the move ? I am sorry , I am still newbie in your trading style .
Thanks in advance,
Reply
TimStuyts SamehAnwer
8 months ago
For this scenario to play out (either and ABC correction of possible even an impulsive 12345) I like to see a significant retrace after the previous bullish move before entering long to trade the continuation. I'm looking for specific set-ups before I call them high probability. The previous bearish swing lower was impulsive and very strong with a steep angle. The market needs to determine whether this was extended or not and after 2 weeks of bullish price action I expect the market to take a pause before it might continue its move higher to complete this correction on the daily time frame. Wave structure also means the relation between waves in terms of how much they correct and for how long. However keep in mind that my projections are based on guidelines and the characteristics of a specific pair, so it doesn't have to unfold exactly how I like it, but the more guidelines and characteristics are met, the higher the probability of the follow up. Therefor I plan many trades and scenario's but only trade those that make sense and unfold the way I'm looking for.
Reply
Mect.fx
8 months ago
EW GbpJpy
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Marvin
8 months ago
Hi Tim. What TF do you look at for the break and what critera has to be met for you to enter. I'm thinking of a close above this TL on whatever chart you look at plus perhaps a retest of the TL from the other side? Thanks.
+1 Reply
TimStuyts Marvin
8 months ago
Hey Marvin, I will be focused on a reversal by means of divergence from this zone. The trend line break is only a tool for visualization for me. So what you might see in terms of your criteria is: bullish impulse of lesser degree (the break you mention), then consolidation (the retest you mention) and then buy continuation. If we don't see the continuation I'm not in the trade and simply have to wait for next set-up. However I remove the trend line from my chart and focus on that reversal structure, this can be done on all time frames and I like to start on 15 min or even 5 min tf when the set-up is like this. This way I can add to my position when I see it happen on higher tf's as well. However my lower tf entries will be at break even already once that happens. The beauty of wave structure is that it happens on all degree's which present many opportunities to add.
+1 Reply
Marvin TimStuyts
8 months ago
Hmm. Ok. Nice detailed answer. I really appreciate it. It leads me to these questions (if you have the time). You mention divergence, but I don't see an oscillator on your chart. I see divergence on MacD on H1 now for example. But maybe this isn't what you mean. Maybe your eye is your oscillator?? And then the question that everybody wants to know. At what point to you deem the continuation good enough to enter?
Reply
TimStuyts Marvin
8 months ago
In terms of Oscillator you can use several indicators. MACD, RSI, Awesome Oscillator etc. I like to use AO but am testing another oscillator as well at the moment but I only look at them once a certain set-up presents itself to see whether it shows confluence. A continuation is ready when we see an impulse of lesser degree followed by a consolidation. I will try to show this in my next updates if we see that happen because I'm not sure how to describe this because you need to recognize the difference between impulse and consolidation.
+1 Reply
Marvin TimStuyts
8 months ago
Ok, I'll keep an eye out for your update. It's easy to recognize the difference in hindsight but I often enter only to see price reverse even though I was patient and thought continuation was present. Thnks for your time Tim.
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Marvin
8 months ago
You had a buy stop order pending? Wasn't that highly risky? You could have been triggered only for price to drop right? I suppose you had your stop in place and took a calculated risk.
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TimStuyts Marvin
8 months ago
Risk works both ways without risk there is no profit or loss, it is about calculate your risk as you mention and I had my plan and stop in place. I only trade specific news events depending on structure.
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Marvin
8 months ago
Well done Tim.
Reply
layyarx
8 months ago
Hi, can you explain the difference between the a,b,c waves & A,B,C waves? I know a,b,c refers to the corrective waves defined in Elliot wave theory, but unaware of A,B,C notation
Reply
TimStuyts layyarx
8 months ago
Yes it is the difference in wave degree. So red 'ABC' is leading structure for this set-up and a daily correction of the bearish impulse. The black 'abc' are waves of lesser degree and explain the structure of 'ABC' in red. So what I like to see for daily 'ABC' in red is a 5-3-5 pattern where wave A has 5 inner waves, wave B has 3 inner waves and wave C has 5 inner waves.
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layyarx TimStuyts
8 months ago
Thanks
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