Long GBPJPY: Alternate Bat at Trendline Support

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound / Japanese Yen
GBPJPY             has completed a bullish bat at strong trendline support. This allows for a 5:1 R/R because a break and close below the trendline nullifies the trade. In addition to the pattern completion, there was a strong breakout from a 1D trendline that may potentially be retested. A missed pivot cluster may add to the bullish bias. We also have bullish RSI divergence printed, which is also oversold. Entry at current levels with SL below structure lows and target at the . 382 retracement of the CD leg. The target is confluent with the missed pivot cluster.

Confluence in the PRZ:
  • Bullish alternate bat pattern complete
  • Strong daily trendline support
  • Missed pivot cluster at .382CD retracement
  • Bullish RSI divergence
  • RSI Oversold
  • Possible retest of breakout line
Comment: Larger TF (Daily) Chart:
Trade closed manually: I'm closing this trade manually at breakeven. 4H Candle closed below trendline and is now retesting:

First of all, great analysis. I am newbie and following some good talents here, and you are one of them. I have a slightly different point of view on this...

01. This pair has begun a retracement on MN, and the Next Target is a 50% retracement to 157 level, but before that, There Might be a Head-Shoulder happening at your said levels.
02. Major Weekly support at 175 level and 23.6 Fib at 177. I think, these two Levels with get tested first before any High Rise for Head n Shoulder following your analysis.
03. The Major Level at 180, just got broken and that gives a more probablity to retest the next Fib level and/or the Weekly level.
04. The Previous Weekly Bar was a high Momentum Bar, which also adds up to the probability of my analysis.
05. Daily inside Bar setup with a somewhat PIN BAR inside and a LH close. IT could not make a LL due to early close of the Market today, but it was getting there, in my opinion.
06. MN FIB level of 23.6 is also a 86.4 FIB level on Daily/Weekly as per your chart. Current level of Daily/Weekly 78.6 Fib, is likely to be broken, targeting to the next level of 86.4/23.6 Fib.

Please feel free with your suggestion since I am short on this Trade.
+1 Reply
Hello and thank you for putting time into this analysis! I agree that that is a probable scenario. I closed this trade manually at break-even and am remaining neutral on the pair for the time being.
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