Predictive/forecasting model signaled further decline towards a structural lower-low, relative to a nadir carved out at 163.165 on February 04th, 2014. Model also defined a support as:
- TG-Lo = 161.808 - 21 OCT 2014
Considering the larger timeframe, a retracement to higher-highs might occur in the interim, but such upside potential remains limited per model's bearish directional bias.
LIMITED UPSIDE POTENTIAL:
More specifically, there is significant resistance at 174.363 per predictive/forecasting model, whereas structural resistance can be easily found at 175.330 per evaluation of lower timeframes, where such attainment would also complete a Head & Shoulder's anatomy - Both of these upside values are defined in the chart in BLACK.
FIBONACCI TIME ZONE DEFINES POTENTIAL TIMING:
Worth noting here is the application of a Fibonacci Time Zone, defining specific points along the Fibonaci's series using Wave-A as its base.
While points 2 and 5 of this Fibonacci Time Zone seem to result in discreet price inflections, a significant action occurred at point 8, as it defined a historical high and the completion of Elliott Wave's Wave-B (assuming that the developing geometry is an Elliott Wave's Extended Flat, where a corrective form in Wave-B terminates beyond the origin of a corrective Wave-A, and Wave-C is expected to span beyond the termination point of Wave-A and over to TG-Lo = 161.808 via an impulsive form.
However, most importantly, point 13 of the same Fibonacci series approximates the intersection of a dominant supportive trendline and above defined TG-Lo = 161.808.
To be candid here, I have nudged the trendline so as to offer a best approximation. Still, the proximity of these points call for a serious consideration of this price x time level, since both the model and the Fib time zone projections occurred as independent variables.
OVERALL:
Apart from this geometric coincidence, the predictive/forecasting model signals a strengthening of bears, and eyes a solid support at 161.808. Whether an Elliott Wave corrective geometry pans out, or a Fibonacci time zone help define a specific level at which price might retrace remains more an academic exercise here, than added technical evidence to the mode's assertion. Therefore, I suggest that the technical trader rests on his/her own tools and due diligence.
Cheers,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
Highly appreciate this Sir , I have already shorted it 171.800 and get angry this pair keep pushing up making me wait long , no problem if it will finally
drop down as I entered with small lot fitting with risk management. Thank you a lot again :)
Recluse82
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sucks
Recluse82
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i think this ideab is no longer valid
CGiMarkets
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What now? I think too this idea is no longer valid!
4xForecaster
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Correct, since 175.330 - David
IvanLabrie
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I had a pending buy over that 175.36 and a sell stop below 173.87...major s/r levels. Was a good idea it seems :D
4xForecaster
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22 OCT 2014 - Update:
From Twitter:
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GBPJPY: New target @ 165.906 defined per predictive model; Original 161.808 target remains in force:
USDJPY is pushing JPY crosses to higher highs. GBPJPY is exeriencing the same push on the back of a weakening #Yen:
David Alcindor