DISCLAIMER: Hi everyone, this is just a log book for me on applying everything that I have learned and continue to learn as I go along. That being said, I do not advise you to base your trading on these "ideas".
"The trend is your friend 'til the end". Lost a bit of money on this pair this week. Lets take a look:
Daily: Alright so we started Week 20 with lower lows, the psice was moving as we expected but we see that the price hit support around 138.970 and retraced completely. Started breaking previous resistance and went to touch that trendline.
4hr: Ok, 4hr as always our key time frame. So the price reached it's lowest low at 138.733. Which had also been previous support and resistance levels back in February and March. Now back to this week, as the price moved upwards towards our trendline the logical thought was that it would bounce back down. But as you can see we have a break on the trendline and even a break past the 141.854 resistance level. Fib Retracements: Ok, so If we draw here the fib retracements we can see that the price touched that 23.60 retracement line. What I have learned is that usually when we reject the 23.6 retracement level, the price will continue on the direction its going. So what can we expect on this pair?
Option 1: Ok, so I believe the price could either touch the trendline or the 38.2 retracement level, and continue heading north. Thus, marking the end of this bullish trend and heading towards the next support and resistance level around 143.723.
News and Fundamentals: On Monday there will be Brexit news on this pair so we gotta hold on to our hats for a lot of volatility as soon as markets open. so this week I need to practice patience, which is not what I did last week.
Trade closed: target reached
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Alright so there was a bit of a wedge forming here. Thus rendering my analysis a but useless. I was able to take a short position and hit TP. It was my first time using a pending order and it was triggered over night while I slept, and in 5hrs it hit my TP.