GBP/JPY Swing Sell - 190 Pips (19:1 Risk to Reward)

OANDA:GBPJPY   British Pound / Japanese Yen
Entry: 152.900 (15min)
Stop Loss: 153.000
Take Profit: 151.000
Pure Price action and fundamental analysis
No Signals, No Indicators, No Fibonacci Retracements

Technical Analysis:
This GBP/JPY chart is of the 30 minute timeframe, but the entry was taken on the 15 minute with confluence from higher timeframes. Starting from the yearly timeframe, price retested a minor resistance of 152.300 and tried to break bullish . As we drop to lower timeframes such as the quarterly and monthly, the current quarterly and monthly candles flipped bearish (allows the candle to make a bottom wick to grab liquidity and later continue bullish ). Weekly timeframe shows that price is trying to generate more liquidity to break past the minor yearly resistance and the 151.000 level is a minor weekly support. So break of the 151 level allows for more sell opportunities. The last two daily candles indicated decrease in volume after the break of the yearly minor resistance of 152.300, which provided further confirmation of sells. The price did not retest the break of the 152.300 on the daily timeframe . As price broke the bottom wick of the previous daily candle, the analysis included an influx of seller's volume to continue bearish . As we continue down to intraday timeframes (4hr, 2hr, 30min), we see price consolidating (generating orders and liquidity) and that indicates incoming volume . Once the price broke below the consolidation zone on the 30min and 15min timeframe, I waited for price to retrace and reject the consolidation zone as the new resistance.

Further details of how I managed my trade at each level are indicated on the chart.

Fundamental Analysis:
The UK economy is starting to open again. On Monday, PM Johnson released details about curbing restrictions for the businesses, pubs, and restaurants. The economy is set to fully open in June. This brings in optimism for GBP, as other developing and under-developed countries continue to struggle with mass vaccination, and even struggling with securing vaccine supplies. However, there is uncertainty about how the government and health-care system will be able to manage the rise in cases after the economy opens (inevitable). Moreover, the government announced a decrease in supply towards the end of the first quarter and the EU halts exports of AstraZeneca (UK-based) to the UK until the EU receives the promised supply of vaccines from the company. Majority of the UK's population has received the first dose and the UK needs to secure more supplies before the partial immunity of the groups who received their first dose a while ago, fades. A recent supporting fundamental has also been the halt of AstraZeneca's vaccine trial in younger children age group.


Amazing trade!