Back at the drop zone from before and price came rushing in nicely. I call this a push-fail. Price rushes up, takes out a high and runs into a bunch of sell orders still left there ('whale tracks' or value sellers still working their orders). All those playing breakouts see that massive green candle and go "this is it" and have their stops just below adding to the orders. Soon as it falls back below the high I'm in trying to get a free ride if/when breakout traders get kicked in the face and everyone that suddenly got start feeling iffy about it, all this with a very small risk just above the high we made. It could find buyers and punch through in which case I'm protected by a very small stop, or rush down as bulls get caught or simply run out of energy and slowly trade down, perhaps even all the way to lows and beyond. Easy entry as it is a minor risk with a possibly massive upside.
Trade closed: target reached
I think we're thinking along the same lines here, I'm just working through current price flow (meaning I am willing to scalp my way in and take what I get for a 3rd test while still agreeing with your projection). Should it drop like a stone from this level though, I'm in and reworking the idea and not waiting for it to go higher.
Don't have a screencap of the finished short to show the end but will add this for clarification - we can see that we worked off the warning line and followed it down to the retest of the UML before going long. Long orders were waiting at the prev range lows and we got out just above it at the UML.