furthermore, this high/low peaks in the chart above occur after a double top in place at 173.xx and downtrend. i do believe there is a chance of a retrace up (but not for the same reasons as you) but have no way to tell yet whether it is going to turn into a reversal back to test the double top high. if that reversal doesn't happen, it's going down according to double top classical target projection.
has your approach anything to do with EW? and what happens when the count is not 6 swings, but 4 or 5? is it statistically occurring more than 75% of the time?
i feel like i'm grasping at straws here. please enlighten me. ;)