TipTVFinance

GBP/JPY – Have we bottomed out?

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound/Japanese Yen
GBP/JPY             – Have we bottomed out?

What we have is a 4-hour chart showing an inverse head and shoulder breakout at a time when the 5-wave             declining structure appears to have been completed on the weekly time frame.

Also note – we have a bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly timeframe .

Overall, the technicals tell me the recent low of 128.82 is unlikely to be challenged any time soon, unless we have a serious risk-off event.

On macro front, a double barreled stimulus in Japan – fiscal + monetary could translate into a Yen sell-off, while Bank of England (BOE) is now effectively data dependent. If the UK data dose not point to worsening of the economy post Brexit vote, the GBP/JPY             could continue its move higher.

In today’s finance show, we had Steven Woodcock, Senior Market Analyst at Plutus FX, talk about FX markets in general with special emphasis on GBP and JPY. He believes, Yen may have turned the corner now and GBP/JPY             is heading towards 200 in the long run. Check out the video here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1jnOYjXVSI
Hi, thank you for sharing your chart analysis on this pair.
Hope you won't mind me asking if the wave 1 from June 2015 high is valid as it only seems to have 3 swings or waves rather than usual 5. Would appreciate your clarification on that when you have a moment.
Reply
Comments are always welcome mate.
It would be great if you can post your chart. Honestly I am not an expert on wave. I just happen to know basic five way structure and a couple of years back I would spot 5th wave truncation on hourly charts for intraday trend reversals. But then markets got so volatile that I ditched the technique..
Reply
DanV MOD TipTVFinance
I see. Well really big picture view from available data on this pair from Tradingview, I see potential for retest 2011 low or new lower low as shown in monthly chart with notes
snapshot


If correct we are progressing in final leg which I see developing in a zizgag each with minor zigzags as shown in 2 day chart and the move of June 2015 high which I question on your charts as labelled 1 and 3 actually lacks the internal 5 wave structure, rather display minor zigzags which I am labelling as (w) and (x) as show on chart below. I hope this might help to see what I am explaining and to entertain a different view than the one discussed in your TipTVFinance video linked above.
snapshot
Reply
Nice one. I see you veiw doing well if Japan fails to come up with a double barreled stimulus = fiscal + monetary. monetary alone won't do anything to weaken Yen
Reply
DanV MOD TipTVFinance
that is a possibility. However, I see this move as being partly unwinding carry trade and flight to safety (Risk Off) which will result in USD and JPY being relatively strongest pairs and probably JPY being leading the way once the current retracement in progress is complete.
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